The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

The Problem with Averages

05/21/2009

I was reading a marketing piece from one of the mass market financial advisors. His argument was that since the average recession since the Great Depression has been 21 months and since the stock market has been up an average of 45% twelve months later and since this recession is now officially 19 months old, … Continue reading The Problem with Averages

A Sainted Businessman

05/15/2009

In the early 1990s, I was appointed by the Governor of Texas to the State Depository Board, where I served with the State Treasurer, State Banking Commissioner, and State Controller. We wrestled with the collapsing Texas Savings & Loan Associations, which had wrecked the Texas economy so badly. I was there when the legendary Bill … Continue reading A Sainted Businessman

The Un-Stressful Stress Test

05/12/2009

After all the stressful suspense, the “Stress Test” results were released last Thursday, and it wasn’t as bad as I feared. Still, there are two lingering issues. First, the assumptions were 10.3% unemployment, GDP dropping 3.3% in 2009 and rising 0.5% next year, and home prices falling another 27%. I’ll be surprised if unemployment doesn’t … Continue reading The Un-Stressful Stress Test

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