The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Re-appointment of Ben Bernanke

08/26/2009

Yesterday’s re-appointment of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve System was wise a decision! Sure, he was slow recognizing the subprime problem, but he showed true innovative genius once he engaged. Although there is never any way to prove it, I am confident he prevented the Great Recession from becoming another Great Depression! … Continue reading Re-appointment of Ben Bernanke

Clap…clap…clap…

08/19/2009

Was I the only person applauding Monday when the Dow dropped 186 points? It blew a little froth off the market, which is a good thing! There is a loose but direct relationship between the financial markets and the overall economy. The Conventional Wisdom is this: if the economy improves, the market usually senses this … Continue reading Clap…clap…clap…

Linearism

08/16/2009

I just finished reading The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It makes the point that generations have a predictable flow, starting with growth (the prophets) followed by maturation (the nomads) and then entropy (the heroes) and finally destruction (the artists). The World War II generation could not have foreseen that “America would … Continue reading Linearism

The Feast Continues…thankfully!

08/13/2009

I attended a meeting yesterday and listened to the fear some investors have of China, particularly its ability to crush the dollar by dumping all their dollar-denominated holdings, such as US Treasuries. Their angst is understandable but misplaced. Dumping the Treasuries would create huge losses for themselves and risks sending the world, including themselves, into … Continue reading The Feast Continues…thankfully!

Canary in a Coal Mine??

08/12/2009

Nassim Taleb is the brilliant author of the “Black Swan”, which described how huge, unpredictable events occur, such as the current market collapse. This morning, he said the current Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, has performed poorly and should not be re-appointed when his tenure as Fed Chair expires in January. A survey of … Continue reading Canary in a Coal Mine??

No Champagne Yet!

08/11/2009

Friday’s jobs report was great . . . or the headline was great, that unemployment dropped from 9.5% to 9.4%. Also, over 700 thousand workers were losing their jobs in January, compared to “only” 244 thousand last month. Still, how can the rate of unemployment decrease when 244 thousand workers lost their jobs?? Simply, hundreds … Continue reading No Champagne Yet!

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