The Conference Board issued the Consumer Confidence Index this morning, which dropped from 56 to 46, the lowest in ten months and the biggest one-month drop in history, even larger than after 9-11. There have been grumblings about their methodology for many years, but today’s reading is so un-realistic that I feel safe in dismissing … Continue reading 1+1=0
The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Last Wednesday, during the snowstorm that shut down Washington, something odd happened. Even though the testimony of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke was cancelled, the Fed still released his planned comments anyway, which laid out their tentative plans to remove stimulus from the economy, beginning with an increase in the discount rate. This Thursday, the Fed, … Continue reading A Shot Over the Bow
Dr. Nouriel Roubini is widely known as “Dr. Doom” after being the lonely voice predicting the Great Recession. Today, he actually found reason to be optimistic, i.e., the return to growth in global trade. In 2008, global trade grew 3%. In 2009, it actually contracted by 13%, the first contraction in 27 years. Today, he … Continue reading A Tiger Changes His Stripes….?
Wall Street is always climbing a “Wall of Worry”. The current one is the Greek debt crisis, and it does indeed have the potential to be a big problem. Fortunately, it is becoming increasingly apparent that it is definitely in the best interests of the entire European Union to keep Greece from defaulting. While the … Continue reading Waiting for the Fat Lady to Sing…..
Thinking back on President Clinton and President Bush sitting together as friends to discuss lessons learned in life, there are two observations that stick in my mind. First, President Clinton said that, as he aged, it becomes increasingly important to talk with others long enough to find something they agree about. Of course, it is … Continue reading Pearls of Wisdom…?
Some analysts worry about a double-dip recession. While I am not worried about that, I do worry the economy will suffer a “heart attack”, which usually comes from the world of finance. For the last 10 days, the world markets have worried about sovereign debt. This is definitely a chest pain and should not be … Continue reading Chest Pains…?
I try to use this blog to discuss economic events and changes in the investment climate, hopefully in an understandable way, preferably with a touch of whimsy. I assiduously avoid talking of personalities, with the recent discussion of Bernanke being an exception. But, I cannot resist this opportunity. Long time readers know my greatest fear … Continue reading Remenbering Civility