The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

1+1=0

The Conference Board issued the Consumer Confidence Index this morning, which dropped from 56 to 46, the lowest in ten months and the biggest one-month drop in history, even larger than after 9-11. There have been grumblings about their methodology for many years, but today’s reading is so un-realistic that I feel safe in dismissing it. This afternoon, many of us were watching the Treasury’s…

A Shot Over the Bow

Last Wednesday, during the snowstorm that shut down Washington, something odd happened. Even though the testimony of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke was cancelled, the Fed still released his planned comments anyway, which laid out their tentative plans to remove stimulus from the economy, beginning with an increase in the discount rate. This Thursday, the Fed, as promised, raised that rate by a quarter-point. This is…

A Tiger Changes His Stripes….?

Dr. Nouriel Roubini is widely known as “Dr. Doom” after being the lonely voice predicting the Great Recession. Today, he actually found reason to be optimistic, i.e., the return to growth in global trade. In 2008, global trade grew 3%. In 2009, it actually contracted by 13%, the first contraction in 27 years. Today, he predicted global trade will actually increase 4.5% to 5% this…

Waiting for the Fat Lady to Sing…..

Wall Street is always climbing a “Wall of Worry”. The current one is the Greek debt crisis, and it does indeed have the potential to be a big problem. Fortunately, it is becoming increasingly apparent that it is definitely in the best interests of the entire European Union to keep Greece from defaulting. While the EU constitution expressly forbids direct assistance, there are many indirect…

Pearls of Wisdom…?

Thinking back on President Clinton and President Bush sitting together as friends to discuss lessons learned in life, there are two observations that stick in my mind. First, President Clinton said that, as he aged, it becomes increasingly important to talk with others long enough to find something they agree about. Of course, it is easier to renew a discussion if the last one ended…

Chest Pains…?

Some analysts worry about a double-dip recession. While I am not worried about that, I do worry the economy will suffer a “heart attack”, which usually comes from the world of finance. For the last 10 days, the world markets have worried about sovereign debt. This is definitely a chest pain and should not be ignored. The problem started with the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece,…

Remenbering Civility

I try to use this blog to discuss economic events and changes in the investment climate, hopefully in an understandable way, preferably with a touch of whimsy. I assiduously avoid talking of personalities, with the recent discussion of Bernanke being an exception. But, I cannot resist this opportunity. Long time readers know my greatest fear is that America is no longer governable, that our unique…