Next week, the market could be exciting, maybe too exciting! As I’ve been predicting all year, the market will begin to rally when the election outcome comes into focus. I expected that in October and was pleasantly surprised when it started in September. Historically, the market likes gridlock, which appears to the outlook. Another reason … Continue reading Rest Up This Weekend
The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Economists get ridiculed frequently and richly deserve it. In fact, they usually enjoy it! However, today was a good day, in that they accurately predicted the GDP growth rate in Q3 would be 2.0%, compared to 1.7% in Q2. This makes it even less likely we will see a “double-dip” or experience the worst of … Continue reading Nailed it!
Of all the many market indicators, this is the most useless but must be fun, as it rolls out year after year. Here it is: Since 1950, the stock market performs best from the last trading day of October to the end of April. (Of course, there are always obvious exceptions, like the oil embargo … Continue reading The Halloween Indicator
When you look at a cake, you are seeing the end result of whatever ingredients went into it. The same is true when you look at the market. Instead of flour, butter, mix or whatever goes into a cake, information and expectations go into the market. Most people understand why information moves a market, but … Continue reading Baking a Cake . . . or Baking a Market
Arthur Conan Doyle once described how Sherlock Holmes unraveled a mystery because of the “dog that didn’t bark”. That’s reminds me of the G-20 meeting in Korea. China is clearly manipulating its currency, but so is the U.S. But, there was little furor about this. While the finance ministries are warning of a currency war, … Continue reading Paddling Hard . . .
Yesterday, the Treasury Department issued $10 billion in five-year bonds. In other words, they borrowed another $10 billion. But, something was different . . . very different. Instead of repaying $10 billion at the end of five years PLUS interest earned by the bond-holder, the government will repay $10 billion LESS interest paid to the … Continue reading Please Take My Money?
One of the benefits of aging is that a person has had time to benefit from all the good advice they have received over the years. One of the disadvantages is that you cannot remember who gave you the advice . . . Some of the best advice I received as a young investment advisor … Continue reading A Benefit of Aging
With regret, I have noticed my blog gets neglected whenever I finish doing my quarterly column for Inside Business. (You can receive copies by email at no cost by signing up at www.baycapitaladvice.com.) To be even more confessional, I have also been working on a book, which is still another excuse for my keyboard burnout. … Continue reading Keyboarding Burnout?
The famous fat lady sang this morning, and, thankfully, didn’t sing anything surprising. The rate of unemployment remained constant at 9.6%, instead of increasing to 9.7% as expected. Total non-farm jobs decreased by 95 thousand, far better than the 600-700 thousand monthly decreases we saw last year but way below the 250 thousand a month … Continue reading S.O.S. = Same Old Song . . . Whew!
She will sing this Friday morning, when the monthly Civilian Unemployement Report or “Jobs Report” will be released. To the market, this is the single most important economic report each month, probably too important. But, it is even more important this month. Yesterday, the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report indicated there was more job growth in the … Continue reading . . . Waiting for the fat lady . . .
For years, economists and financial analysts have talked about the BRIC countries, i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, and China. As a group, they were rapidly growing economies dependent upon export growth. As a group, they need to curb their internal savings by individuals and increase consumption spending by those individuals. This is a happy problem. Now, … Continue reading Sometimes . . . The Truth Hurts!