The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

At the Heart of Madness and/or Evil


I just finished reading “All the Devils Are Here” by Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera.  It is one of many books chronicling the global financial crash.  However, there is less narration and more conclusions than most.  The one that most resonated with me was “The rating agencies were at the very heart of the madness.” While … Continue reading At the Heart of Madness and/or Evil

Technical Problem for the Fed


I just read the speech of Charles Plosser, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, that he gave last Friday. It was widely reported as the Fed’s “Exit Strategy” from its very successful effort to save the economy. Mostly, I agree with him, especially his belief that the Fed’s action be made clear long … Continue reading Technical Problem for the Fed

Send In The Clowns


On April 8th, there could be another government shutdown, unless Congress passes a budget. They are still operating until a continuing operating resolution, their third one, unable to agree on a budget for this fiscal year. The Tea Party wants another $61 billion cut out of the budget (Who doesn’t?). The Democrats think it is … Continue reading Send In The Clowns

The Cost of Market Prices


The average trading volume of oil futures is about 890,000 thousand, which equates to about 890 million barrels per day. Yet, the average consumption of oil is less than 20 million barrels per day. While there are certainly some other issues and uses, it does lend some perspective into just how much speculation there is … Continue reading The Cost of Market Prices

Poor Harry . . .


President Harry Truman is famed for asking “Give me a one-handed economist!” His lament was that economists always say “on the other hand.” Today’s economic news is a good example. First, the GDP growth rate was revised upwards to 3.1%, which was better than expected. “On the other hand” shortly afterwards, consumer sentiment numbers were … Continue reading Poor Harry . . .

Kicking Back . . .


Sometimes, things come into better focus when you stop looking at them. I’m sitting on a sunny balcony in Myrtle Beach, reading “Super Sectors” by John Nyaradi. Sector rotation is a method of investment management whereby the investor buys cyclical stocks as the economy grows and defensive stocks as the economy declines. An example of … Continue reading Kicking Back . . .

Where’s My Party Hat?


Did you feel the tide going out? It is the tide of uncertainty that swept over the market for the last few weeks. Markets don’t like uncertainty! There is less uncertainty about Khaddafi; he’s toast! There is less uncertainty about Japan; it will take $235 billion over 5 years to rebuild, according to the World … Continue reading Where’s My Party Hat?

Drinking From a Firehose


It is hard to remember so many important news events happening at the same time. We’re going to establish a no-fly zone over Libya, a move advocated by France, who does not have a reputation as a war-like nation. Did you hear that the protests in Bahrain were brutally surpressed by the Saudis? Gas at … Continue reading Drinking From a Firehose

No Flash Crash II . . . Whew!


Shortly before 3PM on May 6th of last year, I was stunned to watch the Dow drop almost 900 points in minutes during the now infamous “Flash Crash.” Much studied since then, we have been assured the new market breakers would prevent that from happening again. Shortly after 11AM yesterday, I watched the Dow drop … Continue reading No Flash Crash II . . . Whew!

An Important Distraction


In the first quarter of last year, the market set a new post-Lehman high but got de-railed by the European Debt Crisis. In the first quarter of this year, the market set another new post-Lehman high but got de-railed by the North African revolutions, the tragedy in Japan, and, oh yeah, the European Debt Crisis … Continue reading An Important Distraction

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