One of my favorite Wall Street legends is Barton Biggs, who was the Chief Global Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley compiling an impressive record over many years. I managed the portfolio of his father-in-law, who was a dear man that died at the tender age of 99, just three months short of the century mark. … Continue reading A Bigg Legend
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Something interesting is happening. Normally, the stock market falls when volatility increases or vice versa. It is not uncommon for investors to buy the volatility index (VIX), which would go up when the market goes down. But, that longtime relationship is not working right now, why? One thought is that the VIX moves quickly during the … Continue reading Non-Volatile Volatility
For some reason, politicians always say the word “jobs” three times. Coincidentally, there are three jobs reports this week. Two of them were today, neither of them good. The Challenger report showed that job cuts are up 60% over last month. The ADP report showed that net job growth continued for the 18th straight month, … Continue reading Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The conservative estimate is $1.4 trillion, and the liberal estimate is $3.1 trillion for the cost of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. That doesn’t include the nearly 7,000 dead and tens of thousands of wounded. An economist would also have to add to those totals the taxes the dead will never pay and the cost … Continue reading Digital Terrorism
One of the main purposes of this blog is to provide readers with the perspective of all three primary schools of economic thought in the United States. The first is the Austrian school, which argues a “tough love” approach to budgets, which must be balanced every year. The second is the Keynesian school, which argues that … Continue reading The Binary World of Economics
Suppose you buy a stock and sell it one year later for a 6% profit, including dividends. Was that a good investment or a bad investment? The answer is that it depends . . . on how much risk you took. If you took a lot of risk, it was probably a bad investment. If … Continue reading Risk-Adjusted Returns
The market opened up strongly this morning with a rally that lasted about thirty minutes. First, the ISM report came in weaker than expected but still expansionary. More importantly, as mentioned in this morning’s blog, the European sovereign debt crisis raised its ugly head again, with the rumor that the president of Italy (who faces … Continue reading Nice Whiplash!
You might re-read the July 2nd blog for the definition of a Relief Rally. The world markets have been terrorized (and I do mean terrorized) by linking the debt ceiling with budget negotiations. Now that a deal appears to be in hand, the world markets are rallying strongly. Does this mean it is party time? … Continue reading Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz . . . Redux
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