The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

The Golden Cross


Market technicians put a great deal of faith in the “Golden Cross,” which occurs when the 50-day-moving average of the market rises above the 200-day-moving average.  It is thought that momentum is then changing for the better.  Many technicians consider that cross to be a strong BUY signal. We are getting close to that point.  … Continue reading The Golden Cross

The Summit-of-the-Month Program


Let’s see . . . 24 divided by 17 equals 1.4. There have been 17 summit meetings of European leaders in the last 24 months.  That sounds more like regular monthly meetings instead of important summit meetings. Another is being held today, and it is important!  This crisis could take a major turn for the better … Continue reading The Summit-of-the-Month Program

Advance Estimate of GDP for Q4


On the last Friday of each month following a quarter-end, we get the advance estimate of GDP growth in the past quarter.  For the third quarter, the final estimate was 1.8%.  For the fourth quarter, which was just announced this morning, GDP growth was 2.8%.  While that was a substantial improvement, the market was expecting … Continue reading Advance Estimate of GDP for Q4

Toe-Dipping Time?


Readers with gray hair may remember Jim Fix, the father of the “running revolution” and author of numerous books on running.  They will recall he was the paragon of fitness, very lean and trim, with a low resting heart rate.  Everything was fine, until the day he dropped dead from a heart attack while running.  … Continue reading Toe-Dipping Time?

The Real Class Warfare


A friend gave me a copy of an article that appeared in The Wall Street Journal last week called “The Great American Divide” by Charles Murray.  He looks at the world of non-Latino whites between the ages of 30 and 50, normally the prime working years, and sees it dividing into the two parallel universes … Continue reading The Real Class Warfare

The Fed as Co-dependent Enabler


Don’t you love it?  The Fed throws a wet blanket on the good economic data recently and openly frets about the damage to the U.S. economy from the European financial crisis.  Wouldn’t you expect the stock market to go down? Nope, it was down about 50 points at the announcement but then closed up 85 points.  … Continue reading The Fed as Co-dependent Enabler

Good Advice in 1968


A client in Texas emailed me a week or so ago, asking why I don’t discuss politics on this blog.  I remembered the last few weeks of Officer Candidate School in the Army, when they tried to make gentlemen of their almost-graduated new officers.  They told us that a young officer should NEVER discuss politics, … Continue reading Good Advice in 1968

Good Morning, Mr. Stockman


President Reagan’s Director of OMB was David Stockman, a life-long Republican.  I’ve always had a good deal of respect for him.  He was on CNBC this morning, saying that although “Obama is a failure, the Republicans are even worse.” Because of that, he predicts the U.S. will face the same financial crisis next year that Europe is … Continue reading Good Morning, Mr. Stockman

The Latest View of Economists


I’ve been a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) for years.  One of the benefits is their Industry Survey,which was released this morning.  Overall, it indicates a slowly improving economy, with the percentage of economists expecting sub-2% GDP growth decreasing from 70% to only 28%. A year ago, there was considerable concern … Continue reading The Latest View of Economists

Adult-Onset Fantasies


It is said the fantasies of young men involve “wine, women, and song.”  The fantasies of a much older man look like this: Monday:  The European Union, ECB, IMF, and Greek government announce a definitive, binding deal to supply liquidity and institutionalize austerity in Greece.  The Dow rises 500 points! Tuesday:  The European Union, ECB, and … Continue reading Adult-Onset Fantasies

Pop Test


United Capital is a California-based financial services company that has developed a pleasantly short online exam to determine your attitude toward money, which obviously has investment implications.  Understanding yourself is the first step to investing.  Are you a Giver . . . a Protector . . . or a Pleasure Seeker?  Now, to find out, go … Continue reading Pop Test

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