My mind and my gut are in disagreement. There is something gnawing in my gut that says this market rally is overdone and needs a correction. While a 5% correction is almost always a good thing for the market in the long run, my gut is telling me we are overdue for a 5-10% correction … Continue reading Mind/Gut Dissonance
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
For this Thanksgiving, I give thanks for the things in my life: a nice home, a nice car, a dry bed, good food & wine, nice clothes and things that don’t really matter.I give thanks for the people in my life:my friends and clients who allow me to see the world through their eyes, my long-term … Continue reading Thanksgiving Thanks
Readers know I’ve long supported a “Grand Bargain” approach to solving our economic malaise. This means making everybody suffer . . . but only for a short time. While Estonia has been my favorite example, Eastern Europe in general has done a far better job of ripping off the scab from the global financial crisis … Continue reading Graph Envy
Northern Trust is a huge Chicago-based money manager that successfully styles itself as home for America’s blue-bloods, i.e., the extremely wealthy and discerning. Like all big money managers, they brag about their proprietary investment research department, as if that was something unusual. Their forecasts are obviously written by economists and strategists for other economists and … Continue reading Northern Light?
“No smoking, no drinking, and no cussing.” That was the first advice I can remember as a boy. Then, I learned the Ten Commandments. Still, the best advice I ever received was to “NEVER discuss religion, politics or the proper way to raise children.” (Only your spouse should know such intimate things about you.) While … Continue reading Paging Miss Manners
Investors may be tall or short, male or female, black or white. The possibilities seem endless. However, we tend to categorize them as growth investors, income investors, or capital preservation investors. As a practical matter, 99% of investors are either growth or income. (Most capital preservation investors leave their money in FDIC accounts.) Generally speaking, … Continue reading Portfolio Polarity . . . and pimples
Like all human relationships, my love affair with numbers has its “ups & downs.” Numbers are a useful shortcut thorough the blizzard of words that bombard us almost every waking minute. But, when numbers become as vague and contradictory as words, the love affair suffers. I’ve been trying to identify why the market has been … Continue reading The Unfaithfulness of Numbers
You don’t have to trust Goldman Sachs in order to respect their research department. Here are their latest forecasts: 1. GDP growth in 2014 will be almost 3%, which is a big improvement. They expect both consumer spending and capital spending to pick up sharply. 2. Congress will avoid the next round of sequestration, partially … Continue reading The Wisdom of Vampire Squids
I have not been able to contribute to my blog in five days. Once again, Google was denying me access, presumably because it didn’t like my downloading their newest Chrome . . . I guess. This is not the first time they have shut me down. Once they denied me access because I was using … Continue reading No Love For Google . . . or NSA
Janet Yellen has been nominated by the President to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve System in January. With all due respect to Ms. Yellen, I agree with Warren Buffet in wishing the President had re-nominated Ben Bernanke for another term. Yellen will be grilled today by the Senate Banking Committee, as part of the … Continue reading A Known Known at the Fed
Readers know I have been mildly bullish about the economy for some time, despite its being constrained by our politics. While recoveries from financial crisis are almost always longer than recoveries from recessions, this particular recovery has been painfully slow. But, the economy clearly has the potential to grow much faster. There is an old … Continue reading A Brave Perma-Bear
Ken Burns is arguably the greatest film documentary producer in our history. Your perspective is always richer after viewing one of his films. After viewing Dust Bowl, I was fascinated by the failure of science in causing this disaster. Now, I just watched Prohibition and was fascinated by the failure of economics. One of the tenets … Continue reading A Substitute Addiction
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