The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Mind/Gut Dissonance


My mind and my gut are in disagreement.  There is something gnawing in my gut that says this market rally is overdone and needs a correction.  While a 5% correction is almost always a good thing for the market in the long run, my gut is telling me we are overdue for a 5-10% correction … Continue reading Mind/Gut Dissonance

Thanksgiving Thanks


For this Thanksgiving, I give thanks for the things in my life: a nice home, a nice car, a dry bed, good food & wine, nice clothes and things that don’t really matter.I give thanks for the people in my life:my friends and clients who allow me to see the world through their eyes, my long-term … Continue reading Thanksgiving Thanks

Graph Envy


Readers know I’ve long supported a “Grand Bargain” approach to solving our economic malaise.  This means making everybody suffer . . . but only for a short time.  While Estonia has been my favorite example, Eastern Europe in general has done a far better job of ripping off the scab from the global financial crisis … Continue reading Graph Envy

Northern Light?


Northern Trust is a huge Chicago-based money manager that successfully styles itself as home for America’s blue-bloods, i.e., the extremely wealthy and discerning.  Like all big money managers, they brag about their proprietary investment research department, as if that was something unusual.  Their forecasts are obviously written by economists and strategists for other economists and … Continue reading Northern Light?

Paging Miss Manners


“No smoking, no drinking, and no cussing.”  That was the first advice I can remember as a boy.  Then, I learned the Ten Commandments.  Still, the best advice I ever received was to “NEVER discuss religion, politics or the proper way to raise children.”  (Only your spouse should know such intimate things about you.) While … Continue reading Paging Miss Manners

Portfolio Polarity . . . and pimples


Investors may be tall or short, male or female, black or white.  The possibilities seem endless.  However, we tend to categorize them as growth investors, income investors, or capital preservation investors.  As a practical matter, 99% of investors are either growth or income.  (Most capital preservation investors leave their money in FDIC accounts.) Generally speaking, … Continue reading Portfolio Polarity . . . and pimples

The Unfaithfulness of Numbers


Like all human relationships, my love affair with numbers has its “ups & downs.”  Numbers are a useful shortcut thorough the blizzard of words that bombard us almost every waking minute.  But, when numbers become as vague and contradictory as words, the love affair suffers. I’ve been trying to identify why the market has been … Continue reading The Unfaithfulness of Numbers

The Wisdom of Vampire Squids


You don’t have to trust Goldman Sachs in order to respect their research department.  Here are their latest forecasts: 1.  GDP growth in 2014 will be almost 3%, which is a big improvement.  They expect both consumer spending and capital spending to pick up sharply. 2.  Congress will avoid the next round of sequestration, partially … Continue reading The Wisdom of Vampire Squids

A Known Known at the Fed


Janet Yellen has been nominated by the President to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve System in January.  With all due respect to Ms. Yellen, I agree with Warren Buffet in wishing the President had re-nominated Ben Bernanke for another term. Yellen will be grilled today by the Senate Banking Committee, as part of the … Continue reading A Known Known at the Fed

A Brave Perma-Bear


Readers know I have been mildly bullish about the economy for some time, despite its being constrained by our politics.  While recoveries from financial crisis are almost always longer than recoveries from recessions, this particular recovery has been painfully slow.  But, the economy clearly has the potential to grow much faster. There is an old … Continue reading A Brave Perma-Bear

A Substitute Addiction


Ken Burns is arguably the greatest film documentary producer in our history.  Your perspective is always richer after viewing one of his films.  After viewing Dust Bowl, I was fascinated by the failure of science in causing this disaster.  Now, I just watched Prohibition and was fascinated by the failure of economics. One of the tenets … Continue reading A Substitute Addiction

Tortured Logic


On Thursday, we learned that GDP was stronger during the third quarter than we expected, with an annualized growth rate of 2.8%.  Interestingly, it was not because of improved consumer spending, which was 1.5% of the 2.8%.  Improved exports contributed 0.31%.  But, the most surprising increase was inventory levels, which contributed 0.83%.  That could be … Continue reading Tortured Logic

Beware This Bull Indicator


Technical indicators are always interesting but not necessarily trustworthy.  It is a very bullish technical indicator when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average.  That just happened for gold.  Take a look at this: Despite what all the commercials on Fox News promise, gold is not about to spike upwards, UNLESS you … Continue reading Beware This Bull Indicator

Just More Feckless Politicians ?


While nobody would ever confuse me with a Tea Party supporter, media analysis of the Tea Party’s dismal performance during Tuesday’s elections remind me of the quote attributed to Mark Twain about reports of his death being greatly exaggerated.  I hope so, because we still need the Tea Party . . . a little, maybe! … Continue reading Just More Feckless Politicians ?

Wisdom of Sir John


Investment legend Sir John Templeton is best known for his emphasis on international investing.  However, he also said “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”  And, of course, he is right! So, where are we today?  While I see a lot of political pessimism, I see … Continue reading Wisdom of Sir John

Lee Greenwood Is Right


With our daily deluge of negative news, it is easy to think America is falling apart.  Maybe, it is, but there are some places that are far worse.  If you think we have problems, consider the case of Greece: 1.  They are still in recession after six long years.  We’ve been a “weak” recovery for … Continue reading Lee Greenwood Is Right

What’s Not To Like ?


Amid the love fest taking place on Wall Street, it was easy to miss the good ISM (Institute of Supply Management) reports of underlying economic data last week.  We learned that manufacturing improved nicely in October, with the ISM Manufacturing Index coming in at 56.4.  (Anything above 50 indicates an increase.)  While production increased 2% … Continue reading What’s Not To Like ?

More Than Money


It doesn’t matter if you believe you are fortunate because you are a “doer” or “job creator” from the mind of Ayd Rand, or if you believe God has just blessed you (but not others), or that you had the good foresight to pick a rich father, or that you believe it was simply blind … Continue reading More Than Money

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