The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Be It Resolved . . .

12/30/2013

When I was a boy or young man and did something stupid, as boys and young men are prone to do, my father would console me with the reminder that “there was only one perfect man, and look what happened to him,” referring to Jesus being crucified.  His point was that being perfect is over-rated … Continue reading Be It Resolved . . .

Economists vs. Americans

12/29/2013

By a large margin, most economists and strategists agree that the economy is doing much better.  Yet, according to the latest poll by CNN, 68% of Americans think the economy is doing poorly and 38% think the economy will still be doing poorly in another year. I think this difference in perspective shows how much … Continue reading Economists vs. Americans

2014 Forecast

12/28/2013

Sometimes, there is a long wait before something appears in the newspaper.  This is especially true for “feature” articles.  Inside Business is currently preparing such a feature article, compiling 2014 forecasts from various business leaders for publication in early January.  For loyal readers, here is the forecast I submitted on December 19th: Behavioral economists always warn … Continue reading 2014 Forecast

Happy Holidays . . . to all !!

12/23/2013

Most religions and cultures enjoy some early winter celebration, in preparation for the long, dreary winter weather.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah and Blessed Kwanzaa and Warm Winterfest to each and everyone of you! Spring will be here soon . . . ??

Here Comes Santa Claus?

12/23/2013

In a predictable world, we know that the stock market usually weakens in the first half of December as the hedge funds sell out to “lock-in” their investment gains (read:  bonuses) for the year and enjoy the holidays.  Mutual funds do not have that option. During the latter half of December, mutual funds needs to … Continue reading Here Comes Santa Claus?

Improbable But Appropriate

12/22/2013

In Army Basic Training, we were taught that, if we were ever captured by the enemy, we can only release our name, rank, and serial number.  In Officer Candidate School, we were taught to choose death over dishonor.  In Special Forces, we were taught techniques to better withstand torture, such as deep breathing and the … Continue reading Improbable But Appropriate

Welcome Home, Prodigal Son!

12/19/2013

Sometimes, the stock market is like The Prodigal Son that comes from a good family, then becomes foolish, asinine, and unreasonable for awhile, before finally returning to their House of Reason. Twice, the stock market has suffered from a “taper tantrum,” losing billions of dollars of investor money, because it was afraid the Fed would … Continue reading Welcome Home, Prodigal Son!

No Dog In This Fight

12/17/2013

Sometimes, I have trouble getting my nose out of books and looking out the window instead. The classical school of economics makes it clear that any increase in the cost of unskilled labor will cause a decrease in the demand for that type of labor.  Therefore, increasing the minimum wage will cause unemployment to increase. … Continue reading No Dog In This Fight

Distant Thunder

12/15/2013

Because commission-based salesmen are typically not reliable sources of good information, I seldom study any analysis by stockbrokers.  However, Merrill Lynch has just released an interesting analysis, entitled A Transforming World.  Instead of focusing on what the economy and the stock market will do next year, it focuses on three major transformations in the world … Continue reading Distant Thunder

Same Song, Different Chorus

12/14/2013

Wells Fargo was never known as a powerhouse economics shop, but that changed when the giant bank bought and absorbed Wachovia, whose economics department was highly respected.  Here is a peek at their “combined” forecast for next year: 1.  GDP will continue to increase next year and into the following year as well — yea, … Continue reading Same Song, Different Chorus

Disconcerting Conversations

12/12/2013

I have one friend who is a very senior hospital administrator and another friend who has spent his whole career in health insurance.  Both are lifelong Republicans, and both opposed Obamacare.  In separate conversations, they both said that healthcare is now so hopelessly complex that it will certainly fail.  Both said the only way out … Continue reading Disconcerting Conversations

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