The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Bad Good-News ?


During the 1990s, corporate profits averaged 5.4% of GDP.  Today, it has doubled to 11.1%  How can you not be happy that corporations are doing so well?  CNBC great Larry Kudlow likes to say that “profits are the mother’s milk of stock prices.”  It is good for stock prices! From a historic standpoint, during the … Continue reading Bad Good-News ?

My Refrain ?


I know I’ve said it too many times already, but doesn’t every good song have a refrain that is repeated over-and-over.  Here is mine:  we are over-regulated and under-punished!  There, I feel better now . . . Bernie Madoff was exposed in 2009 after his Ponzi scheme collapsed.  He could have been arrested years earlier … Continue reading My Refrain ?

A Peek Ahead from NABE


I’ve been a member of the National Association of Business Economists for many years now.  They are mostly working economists, not academic economists.  And, I always look forward to their economic survey of members.  According to the latest: 1.  Due to weather primarily, GDP growth in the first quarter was only 1.9%, but it is … Continue reading A Peek Ahead from NABE

Economics, HIV, and Cupcakes


It is for good reason that economics is not-so-lovingly referred to as “the dismal science,” because it is so focused on budgeting limited resources.  As a result, economists tend to see the world dismally or at least differently.  I appreciate those who can make the subject interesting, entertaining, and relevant.  Therefore, I highly recommend an … Continue reading Economics, HIV, and Cupcakes

The Cost of Economic Ignorance ?


I’m trying to feel sorry, without much success, for Vladimir Putin.  After all, he grew up in the old Soviet Union, with no understanding of capitalism.  When communism fell, it was replaced with “cronyism” which created the oligarchs . . . but certainly not replaced with capitalism. Following his invasion of Crimea and imminent invasion … Continue reading The Cost of Economic Ignorance ?

Thoughtful Views From Wall Street


Morgan Stanley is another highly respected investment firm on Wall Street and is NOT a huge vampire squid sucking on the face of mankind, as others are known.  Their monthly updates are less concise than that of Goldman Sachs but more thoughtful.  Here are some thoughts from their latest: At the end of 2013, analysts … Continue reading Thoughtful Views From Wall Street

From the Depths of Squiddom


Here are some of the latest forecasts from one of the most feared, I mean, most respected investment houses on Wall Street: 1.  The lousy winter weather has probably taken a half percentage point off GDP growth in the first quarter, with the inventory correction taking off another half point.  Still, they expect a healthy … Continue reading From the Depths of Squiddom

Worry #2


I am often asked what I primarily worry about, or what keeps me awake at night.  Certainly, I worry about the possibility of cascading defaults by counter-parties in the lightly-regulated, heavily-cloaked derivatives industry. After that, however, I have been worried about the economic consequences of a successful terrorist attack on our national electrical grid.  A … Continue reading Worry #2

Another Veil . . . Already ??


With so much conflicting information to study each month, it is already tough enough trying to rationalize and reconcile the behavior of both the economy and the stock market.  Then, some geopolitical veil descends, making it even more difficult to foresee anything.  Remember the European financial crisis? With the renewal of the Cold War by … Continue reading Another Veil . . . Already ??

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