The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Is Good Bad ?


There has never been a time when Wall Street was NOT “climbing a wall of worry.”  Today, there is considerable angst, because interest rates are TOO low.  There are lots of interest rates but the benchmark that everybody watches is the rate on U.S. Treasury bonds that have a ten year maturity.  Those rates began … Continue reading Is Good Bad ?

Birthday Wish


Is there anybody who does not love the Irish?  Here is an old Irish blessing that I received today:                               May the road rise to meet you,                              … Continue reading Birthday Wish

A Perma-Bull To The End


A perma-bear is someone who always thinks the glass is half-empty and that the stock market is going down.  A perma-bull is someone who always thinks the glass is half-full and that the stock market is going up.  My favorite professor from Wharton, Dr. Jeremy Siegel, is a perma-bull.  (However, his 2013 forecast was THE … Continue reading A Perma-Bull To The End

Losing National Treasures . . . Every Day


It is pretty well-known that one active-duty service member commits suicide almost every day.  It is less well known that 22 veterans commit suicide every day.  It is believed that half kill themselves so their families can receive the insurance money.  Veterans are extremely vulnerable to high-pressure, commission-driven salesmen.  Frankly, they have no financial education … Continue reading Losing National Treasures . . . Every Day

A Walking GPS ?


My wife assures me that it is true, i.e., men are overly reluctant to stop the car and ask for directions.  Huh? But, a new study by Genworth points out that women are overly reluctant to ask for financial advice.  61% of men want financial advice, whereas only 34% of women do.  The other big … Continue reading A Walking GPS ?

Memorializing the VA


Since the press focus this Memorial Day weekend is on the troubles in the Veterans Administration system of healthcare, I thought I would add my observations. I was discharged from the Army in 1970.  The following year, the VA determined I was 20% disabled due to my injuries and started paying me $61 monthly.  While … Continue reading Memorializing the VA



The CEO of Goldman Sachs once famously said the firm was doing “God’s Work.”  That may or may not be true, but I am confident the highly-respected research department of that firm would never make such a comment. For example, here are some of their more useful comments: 1.  The first quarter was worse than … Continue reading Squid-In-Chief

TSA Absurdity


Flying out of Norfolk last week, the steel shank in my shoes set up the METAL detector.  Instead of checking whether I was carrying a gun, they swabbed my hands for explosive residue.  Flying out of San Francisco yesterday, the same steel shank in the same shoes did NOT set off the metal detector.  However, … Continue reading TSA Absurdity

Great Idea . . . Lousy Timing


I keep thinking about one particular lecture last week.  The speaker began by saying his parents told him that some things should never be discussed in mixed company, i.e., sex, religion, and politics.  Today, he is adding a fourth subject, i.e., healthcare.  That term is now too politicized. If you say something positive about healthcare, … Continue reading Great Idea . . . Lousy Timing

A Hint From Heloise


She always asked the rhetorical question of, when you drop a piece of toast, why does it land with jelly-side down, making the floor more difficult to clean up?  Why cannot toast land jelly-side up? The same is true with market data.  Yesterday, the benchmark interest rate on 10-year Treasuries dropped below 2.5%, the lowest … Continue reading A Hint From Heloise

Too Clean or Too Wholesome?


I have been to South America once, Asia three times, and Europe at least twenty times, but the cleanest city I’ve ever seen is Salt Lake City.  It is almost scary-clean.  Even though it has undergone substantial redevelopment since I was here two years ago, the construction sites are even clean, which is hard to … Continue reading Too Clean or Too Wholesome?

A Sage Old Pro


This morning, I enjoyed listening to an older Registered Investment Advisor.  He pointed out that all NAPFA-Registered Financial Advisors get into the business because they want to do good things for our clients.  And, because the demand for objective, experienced financial advice is strong and growing, he pointed out that most of us are doing … Continue reading A Sage Old Pro

Gyrating Traders


Early Wednesday, the futures market indicated an up day for the market.  Then, the Producer Price Index was released, showing a troubling surge in inflation.  In fact, it was the highest reading in 16 months, with food prices leading the surge. To a trader, this implied that the worries about deflation were over, which means … Continue reading Gyrating Traders

A Little Mystery


The conventional wisdom is that the stock of small companies, called small caps, increases faster than the stock of large companies, called large caps, during a bull market but falls faster during a bear market.  The obvious underlying assumption is that the stock of both large and small companies always move in the same direction. … Continue reading A Little Mystery

Business News


A common question is which business news channel is best.  Like all good answers, it depends . . . If you are a short-term trader, instead of an long-term investor, you might like the frenetic pace of CNBC.  (This is channel 25 on the Cox line-up.)  I find they are consistently reliable and good business … Continue reading Business News

Demographics = Destiny ?


Remembering that a small rat can become a vicious creature when cornered, there were some fascinating factoids about Russia in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal.  Here are a few: Birth Rate:  After falling each year since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has now stabilized at 20% below the replacement rate.  However, women of Russian … Continue reading Demographics = Destiny ?

You Go Girl !


I watched the new Fed Head, Janet Yellen, testify Wednesday before the joint economic committee of Congress.  She must have done a good job, as she annoyed both Republicans and Democrats. The Republicans of the Ayd Rand/Libertarian wing think the Fed should be abolished (read:  The Creature from Jekyll Island) and kept asking questions they knew … Continue reading You Go Girl !

A Ray of Hope


When Congress was debating or yelling at each other about the Dodd-Frank Bill, which re-regulated large chucks of the financial services industry, one argument against passage was that regulation would chase the derivatives business out of the U.S. and into Europe.  My thought was . . . that’s bad?? The derivatives market is estimated at … Continue reading A Ray of Hope

Thank You, Mr. Putin


Economics is all about the allocation of scarce resources, loosely described as land, labor, and capital.  If you are trying to defeat an opponent, it takes less labor and capital to let him escape defeated than to continue spending resources to simply pound him.  Giving your opponent a face-saving exit may not be as satisfying, … Continue reading Thank You, Mr. Putin

What Goes Down Must Come Up


Yesterday, we learned that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year was a pathetic 0.1%.  Does that mean the economy is going over the cliff?  No! Take a look at this chart and you will notice how volatile this number is: The primary reason for this is obviously the awful … Continue reading What Goes Down Must Come Up

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