The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

A Sage Old Pro


This morning, I enjoyed listening to an older Registered Investment Advisor.  He pointed out that all NAPFA-Registered Financial Advisors get into the business because they want to do good things for our clients.  And, because the demand for objective, experienced financial advice is strong and growing, he pointed out that most of us are doing … Continue reading A Sage Old Pro

Gyrating Traders


Early Wednesday, the futures market indicated an up day for the market.  Then, the Producer Price Index was released, showing a troubling surge in inflation.  In fact, it was the highest reading in 16 months, with food prices leading the surge. To a trader, this implied that the worries about deflation were over, which means … Continue reading Gyrating Traders

A Little Mystery


The conventional wisdom is that the stock of small companies, called small caps, increases faster than the stock of large companies, called large caps, during a bull market but falls faster during a bear market.  The obvious underlying assumption is that the stock of both large and small companies always move in the same direction. … Continue reading A Little Mystery

Business News


A common question is which business news channel is best.  Like all good answers, it depends . . . If you are a short-term trader, instead of an long-term investor, you might like the frenetic pace of CNBC.  (This is channel 25 on the Cox line-up.)  I find they are consistently reliable and good business … Continue reading Business News

Demographics = Destiny ?


Remembering that a small rat can become a vicious creature when cornered, there were some fascinating factoids about Russia in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal.  Here are a few: Birth Rate:  After falling each year since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has now stabilized at 20% below the replacement rate.  However, women of Russian … Continue reading Demographics = Destiny ?

You Go Girl !


I watched the new Fed Head, Janet Yellen, testify Wednesday before the joint economic committee of Congress.  She must have done a good job, as she annoyed both Republicans and Democrats. The Republicans of the Ayd Rand/Libertarian wing think the Fed should be abolished (read:  The Creature from Jekyll Island) and kept asking questions they knew … Continue reading You Go Girl !

A Ray of Hope


When Congress was debating or yelling at each other about the Dodd-Frank Bill, which re-regulated large chucks of the financial services industry, one argument against passage was that regulation would chase the derivatives business out of the U.S. and into Europe.  My thought was . . . that’s bad?? The derivatives market is estimated at … Continue reading A Ray of Hope

Thank You, Mr. Putin


Economics is all about the allocation of scarce resources, loosely described as land, labor, and capital.  If you are trying to defeat an opponent, it takes less labor and capital to let him escape defeated than to continue spending resources to simply pound him.  Giving your opponent a face-saving exit may not be as satisfying, … Continue reading Thank You, Mr. Putin

What Goes Down Must Come Up


Yesterday, we learned that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year was a pathetic 0.1%.  Does that mean the economy is going over the cliff?  No! Take a look at this chart and you will notice how volatile this number is: The primary reason for this is obviously the awful … Continue reading What Goes Down Must Come Up

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