The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

CU LTR QE

10/30/2014

You’ll remember the basic logic from Economics 101 that decreasing demand for a product will cause the price to fall, assuming the supply of that product is relatively fixed.  Likewise, increasing demand will cause the price to rise.  On the other hand, increasing supply will cause the price to fall, assuming the demand for that … Continue reading CU LTR QE

He Said — She Said

10/29/2014

There are at least 130 economic indicators each month, but there has never been a time when all 130 indicated the same condition of the economy.  Considering all the different organizations producing all these indicators using different methodologies, it should not be surprising, but it can be confusing. For example, the latest report on durable … Continue reading He Said — She Said

The Joy of Spanking?

10/25/2014

My father used to joke with other parents that the reason I was such a good student was because he would spank me every week, whether I needed it or no.  His logic was that it was good for a kid to be humbled ever so often.  Of course, he was joking! But, I still … Continue reading The Joy of Spanking?

View From THE Vampire

10/22/2014

The excellent Research Department of the once-excellent Goldman Sachs has released their latest projections.  Here is a sampling: 1.  The U.S. economy is the economic engine of the world again.   (Agreed!)2.  Our economic recovery still has room to run.  (Agreed!)3.  GDP growth next year was reduced to 3.1%, which is still good.4.  Unemployment will … Continue reading View From THE Vampire

Don’t Ask Me Why

10/20/2014

Despite being born and raised in the South and despite being named to play “Uncle Remus” in an elementary play due to my strong southern accent, I have never considered myself to be a “southern boy” or “good ole boy” of any type.  But, it troubles me that employment data from the South is less … Continue reading Don’t Ask Me Why

Bull and Bull Markets

10/17/2014

One of the rumors on the Street is that the reason stocks have been falling so much in October is that hedge funds have generally done poorly this year, under-performing mutual funds.  Feeling some financial pressure as individuals, they took a look at the 20% of profits that they keep and decided to take all … Continue reading Bull and Bull Markets

Asking the Unknowable

10/16/2014

For well over a year, I’ve been writing that stock market corrections of 10% or more are perfectly normal in the short run and even healthy for the stock market in the long run.  I’ve also written that the longer we go between 10% corrections, the more likely it will be a 15% correction, and … Continue reading Asking the Unknowable

Facts vs. Fears

10/15/2014

The United States is producing well over 200 thousand jobs each month.  ISIS!  The latest survey of small business shows the highest level of firms saying now is a good time to expand.  Putin!  Lending to business is up 6.3% over last year.  Ebola!  The stock market hasn’t had a 10% correction in 31 months. … Continue reading Facts vs. Fears

$700 TRILLION Stent

10/12/2014

Jim Fixx was never a great runner, but he was the father of the running movement during the 1970’s and 1980’s, with the release of his best-selling The Complete Book of Running.  Although he was a fairly good runner, with a lean runner’s physique, he nonetheless dropped dead from a heart attack during a normal … Continue reading $700 TRILLION Stent

Q3 Column

10/12/2014

My latest column for Inside Business has been published and can be found at: http://insidebiz.com/news/2014s-3rd-quarter-performance-beats-odds  Unfortunately, the online edition does not contain the graph found in the newspaper edition.  Therefore, I encourage you to buy a copy.  It does make it easier to see the change in the velocity of money.    

Muscle Imbalance

10/09/2014

Most every person struggles with internal conflicts.  One of the most common is that conflict between mind and heart or between the rational and the emotional.  A common assumption is that one is good and the other is not-so-good.  Therefore, it logically follows that the good one should be strengthened and the not-so-good one weakened. … Continue reading Muscle Imbalance

272 Points

10/08/2014

Yesterday, I was reading the weekly commentary of my favorite sage, old Wharton professor, Dr. Jeremy Siegel.  It was written last Friday, and it concluded “from a technical standpoint, the rebound in the Russell 2000 Index from its May bottom was encouraging, but it may retest these levels.  It is not certain that, despite today’s … Continue reading 272 Points

Quarterly Column

10/07/2014

Readers know I write a column for Inside Business, which I submitted yesterday.  Here is the opening: The sensitivity of stock markets to geopolitical events varies over time.  Since the global financial crisis of 2008/9, our market has been extremely sensitive to them.  But, over the last quarter, we have seen more Russian aggression against … Continue reading Quarterly Column

Supreme Help . . . Please!

10/03/2014

The pundit class is upset because the Supreme Court has declined to review any cases on same-sex marriage for this upcoming term.  Lost in their consternation, nobody has noticed the Court did take up two cases on redistricting, which I believe is the source of all political evil and far more important than same-sex marriage. … Continue reading Supreme Help . . . Please!

Just One More Scare ?

10/02/2014

Yesterday’s frightening drop in the stock market was just that — just another frightening drop in the stock market.  Rejoice — we’ve been needing a 5-10% drop for a long time now.  Such temporary drops are essential for the long-term health of the market.  In fact, small-cap stocks are already in correction territory, and it … Continue reading Just One More Scare ?

Interesting Projections From Goldman

10/01/2014

Analysts who work for firms that sell stocks are often called “sell-side” analysts.  Not surprising, they always have stock they recommend that YOU buy.  Investment managers are usually “buy-side” analysts and are bearish as often as bullish.  Normally, you listen to buy-side analysts and take sell-side analysts more lightly. Goldman Sachs is both a seller … Continue reading Interesting Projections From Goldman

Ripples In The Maternity Pond ?

10/01/2014

Wouldn’t it be great if all young people got a college education, along with the resulting good job, and then got married and bought  a home?  That was the notion when Congress greatly expanded lending to college students in the 1990’s.   As we encouraged them to do, they promptly went to college, mostly brand-new, … Continue reading Ripples In The Maternity Pond ?

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