The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.



You’ll remember the basic logic from Economics 101 that decreasing demand for a product will cause the price to fall, assuming the supply of that product is relatively fixed.  Likewise, increasing demand will cause the price to rise.  On the other hand, increasing supply will cause the price to fall, assuming the demand for that … Continue reading CU LTR QE

He Said — She Said


There are at least 130 economic indicators each month, but there has never been a time when all 130 indicated the same condition of the economy.  Considering all the different organizations producing all these indicators using different methodologies, it should not be surprising, but it can be confusing. For example, the latest report on durable … Continue reading He Said — She Said

The Joy of Spanking?


My father used to joke with other parents that the reason I was such a good student was because he would spank me every week, whether I needed it or no.  His logic was that it was good for a kid to be humbled ever so often.  Of course, he was joking! But, I still … Continue reading The Joy of Spanking?

View From THE Vampire


The excellent Research Department of the once-excellent Goldman Sachs has released their latest projections.  Here is a sampling: 1.  The U.S. economy is the economic engine of the world again.   (Agreed!)2.  Our economic recovery still has room to run.  (Agreed!)3.  GDP growth next year was reduced to 3.1%, which is still good.4.  Unemployment will … Continue reading View From THE Vampire

Don’t Ask Me Why


Despite being born and raised in the South and despite being named to play “Uncle Remus” in an elementary play due to my strong southern accent, I have never considered myself to be a “southern boy” or “good ole boy” of any type.  But, it troubles me that employment data from the South is less … Continue reading Don’t Ask Me Why

Bull and Bull Markets


One of the rumors on the Street is that the reason stocks have been falling so much in October is that hedge funds have generally done poorly this year, under-performing mutual funds.  Feeling some financial pressure as individuals, they took a look at the 20% of profits that they keep and decided to take all … Continue reading Bull and Bull Markets

Asking the Unknowable


For well over a year, I’ve been writing that stock market corrections of 10% or more are perfectly normal in the short run and even healthy for the stock market in the long run.  I’ve also written that the longer we go between 10% corrections, the more likely it will be a 15% correction, and … Continue reading Asking the Unknowable

Facts vs. Fears


The United States is producing well over 200 thousand jobs each month.  ISIS!  The latest survey of small business shows the highest level of firms saying now is a good time to expand.  Putin!  Lending to business is up 6.3% over last year.  Ebola!  The stock market hasn’t had a 10% correction in 31 months. … Continue reading Facts vs. Fears

$700 TRILLION Stent


Jim Fixx was never a great runner, but he was the father of the running movement during the 1970’s and 1980’s, with the release of his best-selling The Complete Book of Running.  Although he was a fairly good runner, with a lean runner’s physique, he nonetheless dropped dead from a heart attack during a normal … Continue reading $700 TRILLION Stent

Q3 Column


My latest column for Inside Business has been published and can be found at:  Unfortunately, the online edition does not contain the graph found in the newspaper edition.  Therefore, I encourage you to buy a copy.  It does make it easier to see the change in the velocity of money.    

Muscle Imbalance


Most every person struggles with internal conflicts.  One of the most common is that conflict between mind and heart or between the rational and the emotional.  A common assumption is that one is good and the other is not-so-good.  Therefore, it logically follows that the good one should be strengthened and the not-so-good one weakened. … Continue reading Muscle Imbalance

272 Points


Yesterday, I was reading the weekly commentary of my favorite sage, old Wharton professor, Dr. Jeremy Siegel.  It was written last Friday, and it concluded “from a technical standpoint, the rebound in the Russell 2000 Index from its May bottom was encouraging, but it may retest these levels.  It is not certain that, despite today’s … Continue reading 272 Points

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