The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Golden Memories Are The Constants

11/30/2014

As individuals in the constantly changing world of relationships, we look for a constant – a relationship with someone which does not change over time.  That person usually becomes a spouse but often becomes our ex-spouse.  There really aren’t constants in relationships, because people change as they age, and either the relationship adjusts or it … Continue reading Golden Memories Are The Constants

Opaque OPEC

11/28/2014

Although OPEC is currently meeting in Vienna, little is expected, despite a flurry of activity behind the scenes.  Before the conference, the smaller producers were asking the “swing” producers like Saudi Arabia to reduce their own production levels to decrease the supply of available, which would drive up the price of oil and prop up … Continue reading Opaque OPEC

Thanksgiving Day, 2014

11/27/2014

I am thankful that unemployment has dropped from 10% to 5.8%. I am thankful that the more problematic U-6 level of unemployment, which includes people who want to work full-time but can only find part-time work, has dropped from 18% to “only” 10%. I am thankful for the average 4% GDP growth in the second … Continue reading Thanksgiving Day, 2014

Things That Matter

11/25/2014

Despite his impressive memory and command of details, Jim Cramer of TheStreet and star of CNBC is not my favorite analyst.  I find his style annoying and egocentric.  Nonetheless, my gut tells me he is still a good guy. For anybody who has ever lost a parent, I recommend Cramer’s fond eulogy to his father, … Continue reading Things That Matter

No Comment

11/25/2014

Long ago in Panama, along with a young black captain who had just returned from Vietnam, we caused a private club located on Canal Zone property to integrate and allow black members.  In the course of that, we had to face down seven men holding shotguns.  Later, we received many compliments, including those of the … Continue reading No Comment

Incoming Tide

11/24/2014

The bulls are running on Wall Street and running hard.  The stock market is up sharply.  But, doesn’t the stock market reflect the economy?  The economy is growing but not rapidly.  Shouldn’t the stock market be going up as slowly as the economy improves? Yes, there is a loose relationship between the economy and the … Continue reading Incoming Tide

Trouble Next Door?

11/22/2014

Just two years ago, optimism about Mexico was high and rising.  The new President, Pena Nieto, seemed truly committed to reforming the hidebound and corrupt country.  He opened the oil business to foreign investment, which has long been a sacred cow to the Mexican people, who vividly remember exploitation by foreign corporations.  With an improving … Continue reading Trouble Next Door?

For History Students Only

11/21/2014

When we look at stock market cycles, we know the current bull market is getting old — over five years old.  However, if you look only at bull markets that follow at 30% decline, it is a very different perspective.  The deeper the bear drop in the stock market, the longer and strong the bull … Continue reading For History Students Only

NOT Our Finest Hour

11/20/2014

In Infantry Officer Candidate School, we were taught that, whenever your men come under fire, it is critically important to give a command.  It doesn’t matter if you holler – hit the dirt or climb a tree or drop your pants – just give a command, even if it is wrong!  Just make a decision … Continue reading NOT Our Finest Hour

Keynesian Malpractice

11/19/2014

A few years ago, the flaccid Japanese government decided to take a Keynesian approach to end their “lost decade(s)” and applied a huge stimulus, using deficit spending.  Predictably, the economy strengthened and their stock market boomed. Now, a “true” Keynesian knows that deficit spending has to be temporary, followed by budget surplus, to keep the … Continue reading Keynesian Malpractice

Involuntary Mercenaries

11/18/2014

Vladimir Putin is the greatest danger to the United State, far more dangerous than ISIS or Ebola.  He is also a danger to the Russian people.  Yet, they still love him.  Vitaliy Katsnelson has written an excellent article on the Private Portfolio website, proving that — perspective is everything.  Yes, their access to information is … Continue reading Involuntary Mercenaries

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