The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Squid Slime ?


Here are the latest thoughts from the highly-self-respected Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs: 1.  Global economic recovery will broaden this year – not just the US.2.  GDP growth in the US will be above 3% this year and next year.3.  No inflation on the horizon.4.  “MLPs remain ideally positioned to the energy opportunity.”5.  Japan … Continue reading Squid Slime ?

Making The Sale


Years ago, a seminary student joked with me that the way to spell religion was p-a-r-a-n-o-i-a.  I suggested the correct spelling should be f-e-a-r, as in fear of going to Hell.  No, he explained, just like consumer goods are sold with sex appeal, some religions are sold with fear.  While they may “make the sale” … Continue reading Making The Sale

Je Suis Charlie


There are hundreds of millions of Christians in the world.  Certainly, in a number that large, there are some crackpots.  Remember the crackpot from Topeka, Kansas, who felt God wanted him to picket the funerals of our soldiers who died in war?  Such extremism is a cancer that can grow and destroy a great religion. … Continue reading Je Suis Charlie

The Sweet Smell of Black Gold


The heart-stopper du jour for the stock market has been the merciless, unexpected collapse in oil prices.  It was so severe and so sudden that the industry was totally unprepared.  But, maybe it has fallen more than is justified.  Take a look at this graph: The dramatic drop in the price of oil matches that of … Continue reading The Sweet Smell of Black Gold

You Say Tomato And I Say . . .


There is much discussion currently about deflation, especially since Europe has now demonstrated some minimal lower year-over-year consumer prices.  This is not good! Everybody knows inflation means rising prices.  It is something we have experienced in our own lifetimes.  Deflation actually sounds pretty good.  After all, who doesn’t like a lower cost-of-living? Here is the … Continue reading You Say Tomato And I Say . . .

Not Your Parents Old 1-2


No, it is not a left jab to the face, followed by right roundhouse to the ear. Instead, it is two pieces of bad information, both of which raise uncertainty, something which stock markets just hate.  First, over the weekend, Germany called the bluff of Greece by saying the European Union would be just fine … Continue reading Not Your Parents Old 1-2

Pet Peeve #847


Full Disclosure:  I have been a loyal, enthusiastic fan of the Dallas Cowboys since 1977.  When they lose, I become sad and despondent for days.  They matter to me!  But, I don’t understand why professional sports, including the Cowboys, use superlatives continually.  Superlatives also matter. My dictionary defines “hero” as “a man of distinguished courage … Continue reading Pet Peeve #847

Quantifying Risk


So, the Dow was up 7.5% in 2014 — is that good? From a historical viewpoint, that is almost average.  What is unusual is that this is the sixth straight year of a bull market, which tells us more about the severity of the Great Recession than it does about the Dow. From a technical … Continue reading Quantifying Risk

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