The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

The opinions expressed in The Flinchum File are those of the writer, Jim Flinchum, and do not necessarily reflect those of Bay Capital Advisors, LLC

You Go Girl!

The optics make me smile.  There is a little, old grandmother with white hair sitting at a table alone, facing off with a panel of men who question, sometimes rudely, everything she has done and everything she plans to do.  Those are the optics for the twice yearly testimony of the Fed Head before the separate houses of Congress.  The best part is that she…

Leading On The Dance Floor

Recent data suggests that the economy is sputtering somewhat, but I’m not particularly worried about that.  It probably suggests the GDP growth rate is slowing from the 3.5 to 4.0% range to a more sustainable 3.0 to 3.5% range. Does that suggest the stock market is slowing?  No!  Over the last 115 years, the Dow has dropped 30% or more thirteen times.  The average bull…

Special Words

When I joined the Army many decades ago, I knew very little.  About the only thing I knew was that I wanted to be the best possible soldier and to make my father proud.  So, I applied to become a “Green Beret.” However, it was close to graduation before I realized our proper name was actually “Special Forces.”  For many years, we were the only…

Watching Molasses

For at least ten years, there has been a simmering battle between financial advisors and stockbrokers.  The battleground has been fought in the SEC, FINRA (which regulates stockbrokers) and lobbyists from one end of Connecticut Avenue to the other.  It has been as exciting as watching molasses ooze.  They have been fighting about whether stockbrokers should adhere to a suitability standard or a fiduciary standard.…

One More Time . . .

I’ve written this before.  In fact, whenever the stock market hits a new high, I have to write it again. The S&P 500 was up 13% last year, but your portfolio was not.  Should you be unhappy about this?  NO!  In fact, if your portfolio was up that much, you should consider firing your investment advisor for taking too much risk. Remember, if you took…

On ISIS And EVIL

Since ISIS or ISIL burst onto the world’s stage last year, I’ve been trying to get my head around the subject of “evil.”  To me, it seemed that ISIS had taken the notion of evil to a whole new level.  Hitler and Stalin certainly killed more people but in a more mechanical and a somewhat less horrific manner.  ISIS seems to relish murder more than…

Too Sudden And Too Severe

The staggering drop in oil late last year was universally unexpected.  While we have seen drops before, this one is both sudden and severe.  My take on it was that North American frackers were so successful in making us energy independent that the world slowly became over-supplied with oil. Then, when questions about the global economy suggested oil demand would fall, the initial drop in…

He Said, She Said . . .

Negotiations are underway to resolve the Greek Debt Tragedy, version 3.1.  Unfortunately, it has become a Greece versus Germany battle.  Greece argues that one-third of their debt should be forgiven.  After all, one-half of Germany’s debt was forgiven after World War II.  In addition, Germany inflicted immeasurable destruction on Greece during that war and never paid a penny of reparations to Greece.  In other words,…

A JOLTing Report

We are so accustomed to economic data that contradicts other economic data that we become almost giddy when data does agree.  Last week’s Jobs Report was simply great, showing a million jobs created over the last three months, as well as discouraged workers streaming back into the workforce.  Yesterday’s JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) Report confirms the tightening of the labor force. In…

Sweet Satisfaction

It is with sweet satisfaction when you learn that something you always suspected is now justified by research.  I have never believed that either the body or the mind were machines that simply wear out over time.  I have suspected the aging process can be delayed by both physical exercise and mental exercise.  Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal details that research — Read it! Both the body…

Better Than Good

The January Jobs Report was simply great.  Not only were 257 thousand jobs created last month, but we learned last year was even better than we thought, especially the last two months of 2014.  For the last three months, including January, we’ve averaged 336 thousand new jobs each month, which is the best since 1997.  Democrats were happy to see that average pay was also…

A Heavenly Squid

When investment nerds die and go to heaven, they wake up in the research department of Goldman Sachs, the legendary Wall Street investment house widely known for their “aggressiveness.”  The latest research indicates the following: 1.  Our GDP will grow at a 3.2% rate this year, compared to 1.1% in Europe.2.  The dollar will continue to rise, with the Euro dropping 4.3% this year to…

How Long Is Long Enough?

Yesterday, when John Boehner was awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to the 40 surviving members of the Devil’s Brigade (predecessor unit of the “Green Berets”), he teared-up.  If I had been there with them, tears would have been rolling down my cheeks as well. Quoting from the Associated Press:  In 1942, they were lumberjacks, miners, hunters and farmers from the United States and Canada who…

The Banality Of Monsters

My support for the death penalty solidified in 1962.  I think it was the now extinct Look magazine that published a full-page photo of the lifeless body of Adolf Eichmann hanging by his neck in Jerusalem.  The photo was a relief.  I didn’t want to live on the same planet as a person who actually bragged that he was responsible for the murder of five million…

The Road To Hell Is Paved . . .

In his iconic 1667 book Paradise Lost, John Milton wrote “easy is the descent into Hell, for it is paved with good intentions.”  English professors believe that is the origin for the expression “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.”  It also explains how college loans became economic quicksand. Even though it is now less true than previously, it is still commonly believed…