The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Sell In May — No Way !!


For those who have seen the movie Great Gatsby, you have some appreciation of how sweltering the summer heat can be in New York City.  For many decades, those who can afford to flee the city for the seashore have done so.  The result is that there are fewer people doing anything on Wall Street. … Continue reading Sell In May — No Way !!

Roping The Fed ?


Libertarians rail against the Federal Reserve System.  Both Ron & Rand Paul want the Fed audited as a predicate to eliminate the Fed, even though over 800 audits are performed on the Fed every year.  This animus toward the Fed by Libertarians grows out of their belief that capitalism is supposed to be efficient, which … Continue reading Roping The Fed ?

We’re # 2 !!!


Was it yesterday or even today?  Maybe, it will be tomorrow.  We know it will be any day now. In 2013, economists estimate the global GDP, for the entire world, was $101.8 trillion.  The United States represented 16.5% of that total.  China represented 15.9%.  However, the size of their economy is expected to eclipse our … Continue reading We’re # 2 !!!

The Winner Is . . .


The award for the most creative T-shirt seen at the 2015 annual convention of the Investment Management Consultants Association in Las Vegas goes to the young man whose T-shirt read: Financial Planning:   It is NOT just for baby boomers anymore.

Future Shock redux ?


I attended a lecture entitled “The Age of Abundance” yesterday.  That title reminded me of a book I read back in the 1970s called The Age of Leisure which argued that technology was making work unnecessary and that Americans were ill-equipped to deal with too much free time.  It never said “idle hands are the devil’s … Continue reading Future Shock redux ?

The Value of Unhealthy Fast Food


People who make their living by buying one currency and selling other currencies often have a stressful life.  They make long-term bets but have to constantly and continually make course corrections.  For example, most believed the euro was in a slow, downward trend, which reflects their economy.  Then, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a … Continue reading The Value of Unhealthy Fast Food

Kindly Advice


Somebody needs to call Central Casting in Hollywood and tell them the perfect stereotype for a kindly uncle is Dr. Jeremy Siegel of Wharton.  However, his kindly demeanor hides his razor-sharp mind and legendary forecasting record.  Here are some of his latest thoughts: Despite lower gas prices and improved consumer sentiment, consumer spending was disappointing … Continue reading Kindly Advice



Part of your job as a concerned American is to visit this website frequently:  In fairness to those who can sleep well after looking at this website, it should be pointed out that the website does not show the declining ratio of debt-to-GDP, which is improving, unless you consider the present value of entitlements … Continue reading Reminder

Quarterly Column


Inside Business is the Hampton Roads Business Journal, and I write a column for them each quarter.   Here it is: 

Disproving A Negative


How can I promise the world will not end tomorrow?  How can I promise the stock market will not drop 50% tomorrow?  How can I disprove something negative? A friend in Europe sent me an interesting article titled “Damned if they raise, damned if they don’t:  The Dilemma of U.S. Central Bank” by Stewart Richardson. … Continue reading Disproving A Negative

“The New Oil Order”


The research department of Goldman Sachs just did an excellent analysis of the oil industry.  They explain that the $60/bbl decline in oil prices over the last year is due to three reasons — normal supply & demand fundamentals, cost deflation, and technological shifts. $25 of the $60 decline was due to increased supply, $10 … Continue reading “The New Oil Order”

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