The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Required Viewing


Nobody ever sat at some polished conference table in a gleaming skyscraper in New York City and said “it sure would be fun to collapse the world economy.”  Nobody ever said “I want to see eight million Americans lose their jobs.”  Nobody ever said “the world would be a better place if six million families … Continue reading Required Viewing

Measuring Value


Economics is about the allocation of our limited supply of resources among the unlimited demands for those resources.  Idle resources are viewed as unacceptable, if not downright sinful.  Idle resources are no different than wasted resources. That makes Christmas and other holidays difficult for economists to understand.  Look at all those man-hours of labor that … Continue reading Measuring Value

A Boring Christmas Wish


My Republican friends in Virginia suspect I am a closet Democrat.  My Democratic friends in Maryland suspect I am a closet Republican.  They’re both correct.  The cause of this confusion is my profound belief that gerrymandering is just wrong — no matter who does it.  It is the bane of democracies everywhere. Gerrymandering is the … Continue reading A Boring Christmas Wish

Thank You, Art!


I have never heard an unkind word about Art Cashin, who has worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for well over 50 years — yes, well over fifty years!  Now the director of floor operations for UBS, he knows the old traditions and the new technologies better than anybody I follow. … Continue reading Thank You, Art!

2016 Peek


The real, honest-to-God, know-it-all’s at Goldman Sachs work in their research department, and I value their thoughts.  Here are some of their latest: 1.  GDP growth in the U.S. will slow slightly from 2.4% this year to 2.3% in 2016.  Japan will increase from 0.6% to 1.0%, while Europe will increase from 1.5% to 1.7%, which … Continue reading 2016 Peek

The End Is . . . NOT . . . Near


It was certainly an interesting week on Wall Street.  It began with a stampede of bulls running up stock prices and ended with bears clawing those prices back down . . . violently. To add to Friday’s dramatic sell-off, don’t forget it was an expiration Friday, when most options and futures expire or rollover.  That … Continue reading The End Is . . . NOT . . . Near

Drowning Santa


Finally, the Fed raised interest rates a small amount.  The stock market rallied a few days, as it always does when some uncertainty is reduced.  Now, it has suddenly remembered “oh, yeah, we have that major uncertainty about the energy business.” That uncertainty is not going away anytime soon!  And, without a recovery in energy … Continue reading Drowning Santa

The Official Version


Recently, I wrote about a moving memorial service for a unsung fallen hero buried in Quantico and have received numerous kind comments from readers.  Since then, the CIA has posted their own description, and you can find it here: 

Go, Fed, Go . . . please!


Wall Street is just atwitter over the Fed raising interest rates tomorrow — for the first time in nine years.  (Back then, millions of current investors could not even find Wall Street on a New York City map.)  Five years ago, three years, and even last year, Wall Street was terrified of a rate increase, … Continue reading Go, Fed, Go . . . please!

Springtime At Christmas ?


It is probably too early to find long-lost hope, but there is something good going on in Washington.  With all the drama of the stock market and the pressure of the holiday season, you may not have noticed that two significant pieces of legislation have passed and been signed by the President, plus the predicted … Continue reading Springtime At Christmas ?

No More Good News, Please


Who doesn’t like low gas prices at the pump?  Economists get positively giddy at the increased discretionary income for consumers, when they pay less at the pump.  But, enough already!  At some point, the long term damage exceeds the short term pleasure.  Take a look at this chart: There has been a decisive breakout to … Continue reading No More Good News, Please

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