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2016 Peek

12/23/2015

The real, honest-to-God, know-it-all’s at Goldman Sachs work in their research department, and I value their thoughts.  Here are some of their latest:

1.  GDP growth in the U.S. will slow slightly from 2.4% this year to 2.3% in 2016.  Japan will increase from 0.6% to 1.0%, while Europe will increase from 1.5% to 1.7%, which is disappointing.  The closely watched GDP growth rate for China will continue to decrease, from 6.9% to still robust 6.5%. but far below their double-digit growth a decade ago.

2.  Interest rates (10-year Treasuries) will increase 73 bps in the U.S. to 3% — far above 0.8% in Europe and 0.6% in Japan.  This should cause the dollar to rise 5.6% against the Yen and 7.8% against the Euro, which will reach parity ($1 = 1 Euro).

3.  Oil will rise 25.6% to $54/bbl, and natural gas will increase 37.2% over the next year.

4.  Gold will lose another 25.6%, while cooper will lose another 2.4%.

5.  Unemployment rates in the G-7 countries are now the lowest since 1970 — 45 years ago.  

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