Shall we think about the “January Effect” on Wall Street, which says the stock market, for the full year, will mimic the stock market during the month of January. I hope not! Or, shall we think about the historical performance of the stock market during years of a presidential election, which average a gain of … Continue reading Glad January Is Over??
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Just as some thought-leaders are actually thought-heroes, like Jeremy Siegel, some are just thought-clowns, whose serious message is cleverly disguised behind a funny facade. Marc Faber is a Swiss-born and Swiss-educated economist living in Thailand. I had the pleasure of listening to him yesterday, as he predicted the future economy was so dismal that he … Continue reading Elevator Music
One of my longest-running “thought-heroes” is the brilliant and affable Dr. Jeremy Siegel of Wharton. By happenstance, I walked with him from our hotel into the conference center for his presentation yesterday morning. It was the highlight of the conference for me! He fairly described himself as the “token bull” in a conference dominated by … Continue reading A Lucky Walk
I have a great deal of respect for Jeffrey Gundlach, who is head of Doubleline and has become known as the “bond king,” supplanting Bill Gross of Janus (now) and PIMCO (formerly). At a lecture Monday morning, he discussed the latest actions of the Fed, which he thinks are unfortunate, to say the least. While … Continue reading A Big Unintended Consequence?
Doctors, lawyers, (not Indian Chiefs) and financial advisors all practice in continually changing professions. Therefore, they are required to get a certain number of continuing education hours each year to maintain their license or certification or registration. Naturally, an industry has developed to supply those continuing education hours, and it is no small coincidence that … Continue reading Annual Guilt Trip
What does the stock market do? No, I’m not talking about financial intermediation or about bringing buyer & sellers together or price discovery or any of that academic stuff. What does the stock market do? It worries! It is often said that Wall Street is forever climbing a Wall of Worry, and it is true. … Continue reading Waiting For The Fat Lady
The Internal Revenue Code makes a big distinction between earned income and investment income. Earned income is what you get for actually working — actually sweating for income to live on. The popular impression of investment income is what some fat millionaire sitting on a beach gets for nothing, just for having investments. That’s not … Continue reading Patience or Panic — Your Choice
Steve Schwarzman is CEO of private equity giant Blackstone (not Blackrock). He is attending the world’s most exclusive think-fest in Davos, Switzerland, and I watched an interview with him this morning on CNBC. He touched on an interesting subject. Is the anger in U.S. politics spilling over and polluting the world? He seemed to think … Continue reading Exporting Fear
Despite being famously called “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,” I nonetheless do respect and appreciate Goldman Sachs . . . well, their research department anyway! Their latest predictions are interesting. While their narrative seems somewhat sanguine, their conclusions are … Continue reading What, No Apocalypse ?
I’m proud of my clients! Even though the stock market has been historically awful so far in this young year, not a single client has panicked and wanted to sell everything. There were a few who wanted to increase their level of cash, just to help them sleep, which is fine. But, I have been … Continue reading Missionaries of Calmness
For the terminally bored who cannot wait to read my column when they receive their copy of Inside Business, here it is: http://pilotonline.com/inside-business/jim-flinchum-fourth-quarter-financial-review/article_3792f69d-648e-5990-bd0b-07d280e87a87.html
One of the more interesting human behaviors is called “anchoring,” which is the tendency to view things in a strict relationship with other things. When we think of the Crash of 1929 in the stock market, we think of utter destruction, of stocks becoming worthless, of investors suddenly becoming penniless. Now, when we see stocks … Continue reading 2016 . . . NOT 1929
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