As we usher out 2016 and usher in 2017, my thoughts turn to difficult transitions.  Which is more difficult:  ushering a child into the world or ushering a parent out of it? The processes of ushering in versus ushering out are very different.  The first is largely a happy process, while the latter process is … Continue reading Ushering

It is always amusing to see which blog posts were most popular during the year.  For 2016, the third most popular was “The Lehman Line” on October 22nd, when I worried about the probability of Deutsche Bank posing a systemic risk to our financial system. The second most popular was “The Only Game in Town” … Continue reading Drum Roll,Please

If somebody said to you that you looked really great today, would you feel good or would you immediately panic that someday you will not look great? With the market hovering near all-time highs, you would think people would feel good.  Instead, “all-time high” must be some code word for immediate crash. The market has … Continue reading You Look Marvelous?

With the U.S. being the only nation that is actually raising its interest rates, it is not surprising that foreign savers are buying dollars, to move their savings and take advantage of the higher rates here.  However, the dollar has increased almost 5% over the last year, making dollars more expensive for foreigners to buy. … Continue reading Cost of a Strong Dollar

I have been a fan of Ayn Rand for a half century and think I have read everything she ever published.  She is the mother of Libertarians and their philosophy of the rugged, determined individual standing against the forces of conformity in general and government in particular.  That is not surprising considering she was a … Continue reading Better In Theory

The last week of each year is probably the most intellectually satisfying week of the year.  It forces introspection, because it is both retrospective and prospective – a retrospective look at the year-ending and a prospective look at the year-approaching.  It begs the question of what did you learn this year that will help next … Continue reading 2016 Lesson Learned

The under-appreciated research department in the over-appreciated investment house of Goldman Sachs list four themes or transitions during the next year.  They are  (1) globalization transitioning to populism, (2) monetary policy transitioning to fiscal policy, (3) regulation to deregulation, and (4) stagflation to inflation.  These are not minor transitions and will take longer than any … Continue reading 2017 Transitions

As we enter the brave new world of Donald Trump, it is useful to assess what still makes sense and what does not.  This graph shows the PE ratio since 1900. The PE is the market price of a share of stock divided by the earnings-per-share of that stock.  Stocks with a high PE ratio … Continue reading “It is different this time” . . . ?