Barron’s is a highly-respected weekly news-rag. The cover article on their latest issue proclaims: NEXT STOP: DOW 30,000 Inside, the article begins with: The Dow hitting 20,000 was no fluke. Today’s stock prices are well supported by solid prospects for corporate earnings and economic growth. In fact, if President Donald Trump can avoid stumbling into a … Continue reading Dow – Twenty or Thirty Thousand ??
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
The Commerce Department has just released their first estimate of GDP growth during the fourth quarter, showing a 1.9% annualized rate, which is about what was expected. Although this is down substantially from the Q3 growth rate of 3.5%, it was expected that 3.5% was an aberration, due to agricultural imports. For full year 2016, … Continue reading Slow and Steady . . . ?
Like most people, I’ve been called a few names, including some colorful four- or seven-letter names. Now, I’ve been called a “globalist” – someone who supports the notion of globalization. I didn’t know that word was a pejorative, but I will wear it with pride!
For my thoughts on the Dow reaching 20 thousand, please read the blog of December 15, 2016. It took a few extra weeks to get there, but that is a good thing, not a bad thing.
Peter Navarro is a brilliant Harvard-educated Democratic economist that has been picked by President Trump to direct the newly-created National Trade Council. After running for office three times without success, he made the prudent move into appointee politics. He is also the author of Death By China, which warned of war with the Asian giant, … Continue reading New Economist In A New Job
One of my favorite thought-leaders is Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management. He maintains a strong hold on the long-term perspective and is not prone to panic. His latest commentary contained the following: 1. Corporate earnings are increasing nicely. Consensus forecasts for this quarter is a 6.4% increase.2. Weekly unemployment claims hit a 43-year-low last … Continue reading Doll Thoughts
When I was doing graduate work at the University of Dallas during the last century, I met a fellow student that I’ve always remembered him as the “cheerful intellectual,” because he wrestled with both facts and truth so optimistically. He had been a high school math teacher and debate team coach in his prior life, … Continue reading Death By Spin
In June of 1981, I was backpacking the Chisos Mountains along the Mexican border. In those days, there was no news in the backcountry. Cell phones were still unknown. However, when we got down, I learned the then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker has raised interest rates to a record high of 20%. I knew that made … Continue reading Remembering the “War on Inflation”
I predicted that the market would continue rallying until the inauguration, which is typically a time of good feelings, before reality spoiled the party. Instead the party was spoiled at least two weeks early. Maybe, it was just catch-up time for a party that go ahead of itself. Maybe, it was the realization that Congress … Continue reading Bye-Bye Bump
. . . to view our new website at www.baycapitaladvice.com Okay, okay . . . this blog is not yet linked to the website, but you’ll get the idea anyway! Your thoughts would be appreciated!
An ancient Chinese proverb by Tao Te Ching says “change your thoughts — change your world.” Nowhere is that more true than the area of finance called behavioral finance. Your attitude and assumptions toward money and investing have a huge impact on it. The best known example is during bear markets, when investors panic and … Continue reading Greed in a Bull Market
My quarterly column for Inside Business has been released, and you can read it here: http://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/expert-column-as-election-years-go-a-predictable-one/article_b7fab3e0-cbdb-5790-9cd6-ba5b16990d68.html
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