The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Chicken . . . or Egg?


Consumer confidence has reached the highest level in seventeen years.  The stock market has hit record highs.  Is that a coincidence or a real relationship? Almost all economic data is related to other economic data.  But c onsumer confidence is more closely related to the level of unemployment than the stock market.  When jobs are … Continue reading Chicken . . . or Egg?

Very Bad Timing


I am a Supply-side economist . . . some of the time.  I am a Keynesian economist . . . some of the time.  And, I am an Austrian economist . . . some of the time.  There is a time and a place for each of the three major schools of economics. Supply-side economics … Continue reading Very Bad Timing

Non-Binary News


News from Fox News is considered true-news by Republicans.  Democrats consider most news from Fox News as fake-news.   This is the partisan perspective, and it is unfortunate that we take such a binary view of news.  It is far too multi-faceted for binary views.  There are more than two perspectives. All the major news sources … Continue reading Non-Binary News

Happy Thanksgiving!


I was not captain of my high school football team, nor did I ever date a cheerleader.  Long ago, I accepted the reality that I would never be President of the United States, nor even an Army general.  That was fine for me but is not fine for many other people, unfortunately. Wellschmerz is the German … Continue reading Happy Thanksgiving!

Tax Support


The S&P 500 has set 54 new all-time highs so far this year.  Most believe the elevated level of the stock market is due to the flooding of cash into the economy by the Fed since 2009.  That was an important factor but is decreasingly so, as the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling … Continue reading Tax Support

Present Shock ?


In his iconic 1970 book Future Shock, Alvin Toffler pointed out how the rate of change was increasing.  At first, it seemed to elaborate the obvious.  However, deeper analysis demonstrated that the rate of change was feeding on itself and would continue to increase at a faster and faster rate.  He argued that we need … Continue reading Present Shock ?

Happy 2018 ?


There is a difference between trust and respect.  For example, I have no trust for the giant investment house of Goldman Sachs but have great respect for them, especially their research. Their latest forecast is (1) that the stock market should be as strong in 2018 as in 2017 and (2) that, if Trump doesn’t … Continue reading Happy 2018 ?

A Weakening Euro ?


So, the central banks in the United States, Canada, and England have all started to raise interest rates, as part of their normalization after the global financial crisis.  The ECB says they will also — someday. Rising interest rates push that country’s currency exchange rates up.  Since the ECB declined to raise rates last month, … Continue reading A Weakening Euro ?



Economists often advise people who cannot follow all the economic data each month to simply follow the monthly “jobs report” issued by the Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month, because the economy must be strong if the job market is strong.  It includes the normal monthly unemployment rate. Some economists prefer … Continue reading 6,100,000

Roses Are Red, Violets . . .


Let’s see . . . GDP growth last quarter was unexpectedly high at 3%, unemployment is very low, stock market values are up . . . it is small wonder that the latest Consumer Confidence Index is the highest in almost seventeen years.  There is always another economic recession somewhere out there, but it is … Continue reading Roses Are Red, Violets . . .

Rhetorical Question


If you are one of my Democratic friends, please stop reading now.  You won’t understand it and will have that silly “deer-in-the-headlights” look on your face. If you are one of my Republican friends, I have long agreed that the news media has a Democratic bias, at least a 51% bias.  (However, since Fox-world has … Continue reading Rhetorical Question

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