I love this country. I love the people who occupy it. I love the dirt they walk on. I love the ideal that America represents. And, I still love the Reaganite view that America is a shiny city on the hill, offering hope for a better world. There was only time my love of country … Continue reading A Long Night of Doubt
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
In his 1958 book titled The Affluent Society, economist John Kenneth Galbraith popularized the expression “conventional wisdom,” which describes the consensus opinion of the day. He wrote extensively about how “wisdom” becomes “conventional” but not as much about how that consensus changes over time. In the investing world, Benjamin Graham’s classic Security Analysis in 19344 gave … Continue reading Investing Fashion
When I took my first course in economics, I was lucky to sit between old high school buddies. On my left was Bobby Brontosaur, while Ty Rannosaur sat on my right side. We were taught that money was (1) a medium of exchange, (2) unit of account, and (3) a store of value. Our professor … Continue reading Econo-saurs
Back in the 1970’s, “pointy-head tree-huggers” began insisting that their investment dollars not fund “unethical” companies, e.g., defense firms or those who did business with South Africa. They insisted on SRI or socially responsible investing. Mutual funds were developed just for SRI investors. That has now morphed into ESG investing, which stands for environmental, social, … Continue reading Tree-Huggers Legacy
“Robo-advisors” refers to canned software programs that claim to do your financial planning at a nominal cost. That software does a decent job of retirement planning but a lousy job with the rest of the planning issues. It has been especially popular among Millennials, who argue a real financial planners just takes your data and … Continue reading No To Robo ?
Mohamed El-Erian was born in New York City in 1958, to an Egyptian father and French mother. Educated at Cambridge and Oxford, he went on to manage the Harvard endowment fund, to be co-CEO of bond giant PIMCO, along with the legendary Bill Gross. Today, he is Chief Economic Advisor the PIMCO parent company of … Continue reading Party On, Mohamed
The November report on international capital transfers was interesting. Both foreign governments and foreign citizens decreased their holdings of Treasuries by $18.8 billion. Some think that represents a no-confidence vote in the Trump Administration. What do you think? It tells me that foreigners believe the dollar will continue to weaken, and they don’t want a … Continue reading A No-Confidence Vote? Nope!
Bob Doll is the chief equity strategist at the giant investment firm of Nuveen. He is generally bullish and has a good track record on his predictions, which I have studied for years. Generally speaking, he expects the economy to be stronger than the stock market in 2018. His ten predictions are: 1. For the … Continue reading 2018 — Good or Great ?
It takes very little to convince Democrats that the President is racist. It takes even less for the Republicans to blame it all on the media. The President’s recent comment on which immigrants should be allowed was, in the words of Speaker Ryan, unfortunate and unhelpful. My first thought is that Trump’s alleged comment has given … Continue reading Getting Tiresome
Tradition links the past with the present and hints about the future, plus there is a certain serenity that comes with respecting tradition. Like most people, I’ve attended countless Protestant and Catholic weddings, along with a good number of Jewish weddings, but I had never attended an Orthodox Jewish wedding until recently. It was a … Continue reading Joyous
Jeff Gundlach is the founder of DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles and is often called the Bond King. He has just released his predictions for 2018. In no particular order, they are: 1. No recession on the one-year horizon.2. Unemployment will drop another 75 basis points, lower than 3.5% (hard to believe)3. The S&P will … Continue reading Hail To The (Bond) King
For gluttons of honest analysis, my latest column for Inside Business lives here: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_e4ed07df-c12a-5ccd-b24a-7f8b46127e5d.html
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