The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

The Needed Non-NRA

02/15/2018

I like guns.  I like the way they feel.  I marvel at the engineering of them.  I appreciate the fine milling and the workmanship.  I respect the power they constrain.  I like guns and own plenty of them. But, I hate and loathe the National Rifle Association.  They don’t understand me, and they don’t represent … Continue reading The Needed Non-NRA

Economic Contradiction

02/15/2018

Except for their excellent research department, I have not respected investment giant Goldman Sachs since 1981, and that opinion was affirmed in 2008.  Therefore, it pains me to agree with their CEO, Lloyd Blankfein. The governmental tools to govern the economy fall into two categories, i.e., monetary policy and fiscal policy.  Monetary policy is controlled … Continue reading Economic Contradiction

Once More . . .

02/14/2018

In the wee hours this morning, Dow futures indicated the market would be up about 150 points.  After the release of the latest inflation data, the futures dropped to negative 350 points — a swing of 500 points. That’s ridiculous! Like I said in my last article for Inside Business, inflation is breaking out.  Paul … Continue reading Once More . . .

Emotional Asymmetry

02/13/2018

Most investors think the stock market is a cold, heartless place without emotion.  Not true!  Warren Buffett says the market has two emotions, i.e., fear and greed.  He suggests you should be fearful when others are greedy, but be greedy when others are fearful.  Good advice! But, those two emotions are not equal in strength.  … Continue reading Emotional Asymmetry

R.I.P. Two Great Guys

02/10/2018

America became poorer last week.  She lost two more members of the Greatest Generation — two great Americans, who were also two great guys.  Both achieved better than ninety years of life.  One was a tall, aristocratic doctor from New England, who radiated good humor.  The other was a shorter, muscular waterman from Ocean View, … Continue reading R.I.P. Two Great Guys

Two Excedrin, Please

02/09/2018

Most people have a strong fear of recessions, which are just routine characteristics of economic growth.  Recessions remove inefficiencies from the economy.  Losing your job is more worrisome than any temporary drop in portfolio values. However, a financial crisis is a much more worrisome event.  They happen quicker, hurt worse, and take longer to recover … Continue reading Two Excedrin, Please

Buggy-Whip Regulators

02/07/2018

While I am often called an economist, I have never been called a technologist or computer engineer.  Technology is a “black box” that absorbs power, perogatives, and flexibility from people, especially the regulators.    The stock market gyrated wildly yesterday.  The Dow spent the day in a roughly thousand point range, from down 500 points … Continue reading Buggy-Whip Regulators

Rising Uncertainty

02/06/2018

Concluding that a high-speed car crash was caused by high speed is a bit simplistic.  The high speed  was just a symptom of too much pressure on the accelerator or gas pedal. Concluding that the current stock market correction was caused by rising interest rates is also a bit simplistic.  True, rising interest expense decreases … Continue reading Rising Uncertainty

The Lesson of Old Cars

02/05/2018

Those readers with gray hair may recall when cars had a manual transmission.  To shift gears, you had to push in the clutch.  When you did so, the car temporarily slowed. The stock market is shifting into a higher gear, and the clutch is now pushed in.  It is shifting from the sugar-high of low … Continue reading The Lesson of Old Cars

Not For The Weak of Heart

02/03/2018

Yesterday was the eighth time the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 600 points or more.  How soon we forget!  The last time was in 2016 when the Brits voted for Brexit.  Most of the drops were in the 2008/9 global financial crisis. I hope it drops another two thousand points! Stock market corrections of … Continue reading Not For The Weak of Heart

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