If you have ever wanted to see the beautiful country of South Africa, I recommend you do so within the next year. The pot is beginning to boil! GDP growth rate is flat, compared to 2.2% in the U.S. and 6.8% in China. Inflation is 6%, compared to 2% in the U.S. Unemployment is 27%, compared to 4.1% in the U.S. To appreciate how destabilizing…
It is bad enough that the morally-challenged technology firms in Silicon Valley argue they have a right to know everywhere you go online, everything you buy in stores, every event you attend, and every lever you pull on election day. But, those big tech firms are nothing more than apologists for advertising firms. After all, who doesn’t want personally-targeted advertisements? I’ve never viewed economists as…
My Republican friends think I’m a Democrat. My Democratic friends think I’m a Republican. They’re both wrong! I’m an Austrian economist. Both Republicans and Democrats practice deficit spending, but they cloak it with clever phrases. The Republicans call it “tax reform.” The Democrats call it “social investing.” Both phrases are cute cloaks for deficit spending. Of course, both insist the deficit spending is merely a…
My Republican friends laugh when I describe Jimmy Carter as our greatest ex-President. A wealthy man, he has devoted his post-presidential life to helping others. However, only Trump-Republicans laugh when I describe Barbara Bush as our greatest ex-First Lady. After all, she was not a Trump-Republican. But, she worked tirelessly raising money to fight illiteracy, raising close to $200 million dollars for that cause. Whatever…
One of the components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is homebuilder confidence, which has dropped again, for the fourth consecutive month. This is not good news. However, there are good reasons for it! There is ample demand for new homes, but there is a shortage of lots to build on and almost none of those are conveniently located for homebuyers. Plus, our country…
It was thirteen months ago that I predicted that President Trump would be impeached or resign. My Democratic friends applauded, while my Republican friends condemned. It was not a prediction that was made with any joy. Make no mistake: Any constitutional crisis is bad for the country, which therefore also makes it bad for the stock market. When I made the original prediction, my confidence…
My latest column for Inside Business can be found here: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_b8d95666-3bf4-11e8-8aa6-2fab2a087df4.html If your browser cannot accept a hyperlink, go to www.pilotonline.com and enter Flinchum into the search box on the upper right.
I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so. That expression is so sanctimonious but seems to mean less as we get older? Yes, ten years ago, once I understood the business model…
A bright shiny object attracts the eye, away from other things. Likewise, the eyes are also a bright shiny object attracting the mind, away from other things. Some people may not be as observant of bright shiny objects in the outside world, they may be more observant of bright shiny objects of the inside world — inside their own minds. Most care more about the…
“Strum and Drang” is a German expression, roughly meaning “Storm and Drive.” It described the eighteenth century anti-enlightenment philosophy embracing emotionalism and rejecting rationalism. Such is also the presidency of Donald J. Trump, and I pray that it is worth it. The latest instance is threatening a trade war, particularly with the world’s second largest economy, China. Despite the predictable over-reaction of stock markets worldwide,…
While there is always an economic recession in front of us, a recession is not necessary for the stock market to sustain a 10% correction or even a 20% bear market. Likewise, a stock market slump does not reliably predict a recession. The current stock market slump started with the January Jobs Report, which indicated inflation was back, due to a 2.9% year-over-year increase in…
People disagree on which TV commercial by Apple is the best one. Most think it was the iconic “1984” commercial. My vote goes to the “Lemmings” commercial, which was aimed at IBM users. You can see it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-SJQdREDKM Attending a local church service, where it is customary for the congregation to stand up occasionally, primarily to sing, I watched an older gentleman stand up…
