The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Land of Concertina

04/27/2018

If you have ever wanted to see the beautiful country of South Africa, I recommend you do so within the next year. The pot is beginning to boil! GDP growth rate is flat, compared to 2.2% in the U.S. and 6.8% in China. Inflation is 6%, compared to 2% in the U.S. Unemployment is 27%, … Continue reading Land of Concertina

Et Tu, Brute ??

04/21/2018

It is bad enough that the morally-challenged technology firms in Silicon Valley argue they have a right to know everywhere you go online, everything you buy in stores, every event you attend, and every lever you pull on election day.  But, those big tech firms are nothing more than apologists for advertising firms.  After all, … Continue reading Et Tu, Brute ??

A Duck By Any Other Name . . .

04/20/2018

My Republican friends think I’m a Democrat.  My Democratic friends think I’m a Republican.  They’re both wrong!  I’m an Austrian economist. Both Republicans and Democrats practice deficit spending, but they cloak it with clever phrases.  The Republicans call it “tax reform.”  The Democrats call it “social investing.”  Both phrases are cute cloaks for deficit spending. … Continue reading A Duck By Any Other Name . . .

Noblesse Oblige

04/18/2018

My Republican friends laugh when I describe Jimmy Carter as our greatest ex-President.  A wealthy man, he has devoted his post-presidential life to helping others.  However, only Trump-Republicans laugh when I describe Barbara Bush as our greatest ex-First Lady.  After all, she was not a Trump-Republican.  But, she worked tirelessly raising money to fight illiteracy, … Continue reading Noblesse Oblige

Good Reasons for Bad News

04/17/2018

One of the components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is homebuilder confidence, which has dropped again, for the fourth consecutive month.  This is not good news.  However, there are good reasons for it!  There is ample demand for new homes, but there is a shortage of lots to build on and almost none … Continue reading Good Reasons for Bad News

Gaming A Crisis

04/15/2018

It was thirteen months ago that I predicted that President Trump would be impeached or resign.  My Democratic friends applauded, while my Republican friends condemned.  It was not a prediction that was made with any joy.  Make no mistake:  Any constitutional crisis is bad for the country, which therefore also makes it bad for the … Continue reading Gaming A Crisis

Q1 Column

04/10/2018

My latest column for Inside Business can be found here: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_b8d95666-3bf4-11e8-8aa6-2fab2a087df4.html  If your browser cannot accept a hyperlink, go to www.pilotonline.com and enter Flinchum into the search box on the upper right.

I Told You So . . .

04/09/2018

I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so. That expression is so sanctimonious but seems to mean less as we get older? … Continue reading I Told You So . . .

Finding Emotional Pearls

04/08/2018

A bright shiny object attracts the eye, away from other things.  Likewise, the eyes are also a bright shiny object attracting the mind, away from other things.  Some people may not be as observant of bright shiny objects in the outside world, they may be more observant of bright shiny objects of the inside world … Continue reading Finding Emotional Pearls

“Strum and Drang”

04/06/2018

“Strum and Drang” is a German expression, roughly meaning “Storm and Drive.”  It described the eighteenth century anti-enlightenment philosophy embracing emotionalism and rejecting rationalism.  Such is also the presidency of Donald J. Trump, and I pray that it is worth it. The latest instance is threatening a trade war, particularly with the world’s second largest … Continue reading “Strum and Drang”

Almost Showtime ??

04/03/2018

While there is always an economic recession in front of us, a recession is not necessary for the stock market to sustain a 10% correction or even a 20% bear market.  Likewise, a stock market slump does not reliably predict a recession. The current stock market slump started with the January Jobs Report, which indicated … Continue reading Almost Showtime ??

Two Things To Remember

04/02/2018

People disagree on which TV commercial by Apple is the best one.  Most think it was the iconic “1984” commercial.  My vote goes to the “Lemmings” commercial, which was aimed at IBM users.  You can see it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-SJQdREDKM  Attending a local church service, where it is customary for the congregation to stand up occasionally, … Continue reading Two Things To Remember

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