I firmly believe there are just as many nice people in the Republican party as the Democratic party. Conversely, I firmly believe there are just as many jerks in the Democratic party as the Republican party. But, they live and work in parallel universes. So do their families. My 2019 wish is for the partisan … Continue reading 2019 Wish
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
We barely hit a bear market, which means the market is down 20% from its high. It is widely assumed that a bear market signals a recession. Maybe or maybe not! Of the last thirteen bear markets, there was a recession only 7 times. There was no recession almost half of the time. From the … Continue reading Take That, Chicken Little !
Wall Street pundits have called the current market correction “a collapse without a cause.” I agree this December collapse has been illogical but no more illogical than the record 1,086 jump in the Dow during one day. As I type this, Dow futures are down 344 points. The individual opinions of economists and analysts did … Continue reading Tech-Dump
The most common question I’m hearing is — “When will the market stop falling?” What they mean is — “When will the pain stop?” Once investors stop asking when the market will bounce back and start asking when the pain will stop, that is a bullish signal. The answer is — “Not this week!” Mutual … Continue reading When ?
Unfortunately, many parents have had the experience of raising a wayward child. You spend decades teaching and coaching to the best of your ability. You are proud of them! Then, disturbing little signs start to worry you. Suddenly, she is gone, and you are worried sick. One day, you see her in the distance, returning home. … Continue reading Wayward Bull ?
Unfortunately, many parents have had the experience of raising a wayward child. You spend decades teaching and coaching to the best of your ability. You are proud of them! Then, disturbing little signs start to worry you. Suddenly, she is gone, and you are worried sick. One day, you see her in the distance, returning home. … Continue reading Wayward Bull
Both Fox News and The Wall Street Journal are controlled by the same person, Rupert Murdoch. Watching Fox News, one gets the clear impression that Americans are resoundingly in favor of the President and his goal of building The Wall along the Mexican border. However, the newspaper reported that, three years ago, 49% of Americans believed … Continue reading Who To Believe ?
As my hair gets whiter and my wrinkles deeper, I find the holiday season less and less interesting. Except for one silly American custom. On Christmas Eve each year, NORAD pretends to track the journey of Santa Claus. They discuss it with great seriousness on television — tongue securely in cheek. NORAD was already doing … Continue reading A Pleasant Memory
My favorite stock in 2018 was Facebook (FB) — not because it did well, but because it did poorly, losing 30% of its value! Early on, I recognized their business model was to sell the privacy of others, albeit with their “consent.” The need to connect with others was more important than privacy. The need … Continue reading Best Loser of 2018
A bear market is usually measured by a 20% drop from its high. By that measure, the NASDAQ companies are now in the dreaded bear market. Even worse, the Dow and S&P are close behind. Investors are understandably frightened. First, this is not the end of the world. The stock market will recover! Never forget … Continue reading Bad Timing For A Normal Adjustment
In Part One, we discussed how the supply and demand for bonds impacts interest rates. In particular, we discussed how Quantitative Tightening (QT) was putting upward pressure on interest rates. In this part, we’ll discuss how changes in interest rates cause changes in the market value of bonds. Let’s say you bought a new bond … Continue reading Interest Rates — Part Two
If I was under six different investigations and . . . If I worried my kids might go to jail and . . . If people didn’t want to work for me . . . If American banks wouldn’t do business with me and . . . If my allies decided I was unpredictable and … Continue reading Only Human . . .
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