The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Interest Rates – Part One

12/20/2018

There are many definitions of interest rates.  One is that interest rates are the price or cost of liquidity.  As liquidity increases, the cost goes down.  (The supply of liquidity is greater than the demand for it.)  As liquidity decreases, the cost goes up.  (The demand for liquidity is greater than the supply of it.) … Continue reading Interest Rates – Part One

mano-a-mano

12/20/2018

Fighting is easy.  Walking away from a fight is difficult. The Federal Reserve is a creature of Congress and can be terminated whenever Congress chooses.  Fortunately, Congress recognizes that independent economic guidance cannot come from either the Executive or Legislative branches of government.  After all, somebody has to guide the economy who cares more about … Continue reading mano-a-mano

The Wall

12/19/2018

I am confident that, if my family depended on it, I would find a way over or under or around or thru any fence.  (Of course, I still remember how to use C-4 plastic explosives, as well as “bangalore torpedos.”)  Assuming that is mere bravado or over-confidence on my part, then a wall on the … Continue reading The Wall

The Wall

12/19/2018

I am confident that, if my family depended on it, I would find a way over or under or around or thru any fence.  (Of course, I still remember how to use C-4 plastic explosive, as well as “bangalore torpedos.”)  Assuming that is mere bravado or over-confidence on my part, then a wall on Mexican … Continue reading The Wall

One More Time ?

12/18/2018

During the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the assessed value of my home starting dropping.  Two years later, it had dropped 29%.  Did I cry?  Did I sell my home?  Did I curse my realtor?  Of course not!  I just waited for it to recover. The S&P 500 has now dropped 11% and is still … Continue reading One More Time ?

Dark Pools

12/14/2018

Let’s say you’re a large pension fund that wants to buy 100,000 shares of Apple.  If you enter such a large BUY order into the market, it would drive the price up.  Of course, you don’t want to pay any more than necessary.  So, what do you do? You enter a “dark pool.”  Large financial … Continue reading Dark Pools

Maintaining Focus

12/13/2018

I parted company from my Republican friends, when they impeached Clinton for lying about sex with a woman. I will part company from my Democratic friends, if they impeach Trump for lying about sex with two women. Sure, there are nuances of differences, but they are only nuances. HOWEVER, if Trump — or any other … Continue reading Maintaining Focus

Dirty Word

12/11/2018

Like most people, economists like to argue.  However, one idea that almost all economists agree with is:  “If you want less of something, tax it.  If you want more of something, subsidize it.” Otto von Bismarck said:  “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best” The president of … Continue reading Dirty Word

Dirty Words

12/10/2018

Like most people, economists like to argue.  However, one idea that almost all economists agree with is:  “If you want less of something, tax it.  If you want more of something, subsidize it.” Otto von Bismarck said:  “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best” The president of … Continue reading Dirty Words

Fox Failed Trump

12/09/2018

When I go to sleep at night, I reluctantly relinquish control of the TV remote.  By then, that poor piece of plastic is exhausted, breathing heavy, and sweating profusely.  That’s because it has been worked so hard — after all, every commercial break requires a channel change. In the never ending search for a balanced … Continue reading Fox Failed Trump

Layers of an Onion

12/08/2018

Many years ago, the mentor of Warren Buffet was Benjamin Graham.  He taught:  “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Colleges teach us that the stock market reflects both current economic conditions and future expectations.  It weighs economic data.  Today, the economic data … Continue reading Layers of an Onion

Importing Trouble

12/06/2018

Inside our country, the stock market has been fretting over the possibility of slowing growth in corporate earnings and GDP, as well as rising interest rates, an ominous yield curve, the trade war, and the perpetual political circus.  As if all that was not enough burden on U.S. investors, we just imported two more – … Continue reading Importing Trouble

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