Neither economic cycles nor market cycles have a brain. They don’t know if they are young or old. They just keep going . . . until they stop. Strategists are fond of saying bull markets never die from old age – they are killed by some exogenous event, usually by the Fed or a bubble, … Continue reading Mini-Cycles?
The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
I was raised in a gun-friendly family and received my first rifle at age 13. It is not surprising I qualified as an expert marksman in the Army. Further, infantrymen develop an almost intimate relationship with their weapon, especially when they realize that weapon may save your life. I still love guns! When I was … Continue reading R.I.P. N.R.A.
One Sunday when I was a boy, I was attending a Sunday School class, when the teacher told us that a bad thought and a bad deed were equally bad. When I objected, the teacher informed that, in a most patronizing voice, that men, older and smart than any little boy, had already decreed it, … Continue reading About Time!
Most Republicans will agree that the President has a different standard of truth, chuckling as they say “Trump’s just being Trump.” I understand that and normally chuckle myself. The problem is that many Americans, not just Democrats, assume everything the President says is untrue, which is not true. That was the case when he said … Continue reading True Lies ?
While I have agreed with my Republican friends many times, they are dead wrong on the subject of the Fiduciary Standard. For years, there have been two types of financial advisors. One are the Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs). They are held to a fiduciary standard, which requires the advisor to always act in the best … Continue reading Understandable or Not ?
I always assumed that I would become an armed guerrilla, if I ever found myself living in a non-democratic country. However, during recent years, we have been in three countries ruled by dictators — China, Cuba and Egypt. To our surprise, we never saw any resistance nor any desire to resist their dictators. We never … Continue reading Contentment
Anybody who has cared for an aging parent knows how difficult it is to “take their keys away.” Hartford Funds has just published a helpful resource for this problem. You can find it at: https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/prospectingmaterials/Whitepapers/MAI166.pdf Fortunately, “taking their keys away” may have become easier, by ride-sharing with companies like Uber and Lyft. Only 13% of … Continue reading Taking Their Keys Away
If you were tired of the breathless coverage of the Mueller report over the last two years, then find some sympathy for our British friends, who have dangled at the end of the Brexit string even longer. Their angst is clearly worst than ours. After failing as badly as any elected body in modern history, … Continue reading British Sympathy
In the fourth quarter, the Fed looked hostile. I argued Quantitative Tightening would kill the market. Q4 was the worst quarter in 20 years. In the first quarter of this year, the Fed turned neutral and the Chinese tariff negotiations turned optimistic. Q1 was the best quarter in 10 years. Tech stocks, real estate and … Continue reading WhipSaw