The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

To Tariff or Not to Tariff

06/29/2019

For those who want to read my latest column in Inside Business before it hits the presses, you can find it here:  https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_9527f304-99ad-11e9-a8cc-c7a905cada61.html

Education Exercise

06/28/2019

There are many ways to spend time, without watching well-meaning windbags pretend to debate each other.  Last night, when changing channels, I landed on such a “debate.”  During the five seconds required to enter another channel number into my remote, I heard one windbag suggest that community college should be free.  I remember thinking “fat … Continue reading Education Exercise

Mixed Signals

06/25/2019

Sparing you the many details, the relentlessly positive economic data over the last few years has taken a turn during the second quarter (Q2).  The first look at Q2 GDP growth will not be available for another three weeks, but I expect it to be substantially less than Q1 growth rate of 3.1 percent, which … Continue reading Mixed Signals

Retirement Income

06/23/2019

So, you have searched your soul, looking for the real reason you think you want to retire . . . And, you have verbalized your thinking to a trusted loved one, giving airtime to both your thoughts and their thoughts . . . And, you have prepared a budget for a good economy and another … Continue reading Retirement Income

Propped-Up ?

06/20/2019

It seems like a long time since December, which was the last time the Fed raised interest rates.  The stock market promptly had a “hizzy-fit” (whatever that is?), and the President began threatening to fire the Chairman of the Fed.  This week, the Fed had its normal policy meeting and strongly suggested it would cut … Continue reading Propped-Up ?

Rise of Populism?

06/18/2019

You’ll recall the President’s famous boast that he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose a single member of his “base.”  That was an interesting comment, and I started thinking about the origin of his base.  At first, as a student of Hillbilly Elegy, I thought it was logical that … Continue reading Rise of Populism?

The “Real” Number

06/16/2019

Ever since Lou Eisenberg wrote The Number in 2006, those thinking about retirement have focused on the one big magic number that will take care of them the rest of their lives.  How big a “nest-egg” is big enough?  Unfortunately that number is income-focused.  You don’t know if any number is big enough, if you don’t … Continue reading The “Real” Number

Exercise

06/14/2019

As people contemplate retirement, they often go to a bank broker to see if they will be prepared for it, financially.  The broker will plug a few numbers into his laptop and tell you the odds or probability that you will be prepared, measured to two decimal places, such as a 72.84% probability, for example.  … Continue reading Exercise

The Fundamental Flaw

06/13/2019

Supply-side economists argue that tax revenues will increase if you cut tax rates.  Since passage of the Trump tax cut, revenues have indeed increased . . . a whooping 2%.  Unfortunately, expenses or spending increased 9%, primarily for federal retirement and health benefits, the military, and interest payments on the national debt.  (Notice that only … Continue reading The Fundamental Flaw

Offshore Crooks

06/11/2019

Every profession has its crooks and charlatans, even doctors, lawyers and Indian chiefs.  In financial planning, I trust nobody who deals with offshore asset protection trusts. Originally, they were used to protect assets from ex-wives or creditors or the IRS.  Of course, the way to accomplish this was to transfer title or ownership of those … Continue reading Offshore Crooks

Retirement Choice ?

06/10/2019

There are many reasons to retire.  You might retire for health reasons, or you might retire because you already have plenty of money.  You might retire because you want to do charity-work.  I think most people retire, because society expects us to WANT to retire.  Why do you want to retire?  Who told you that?  … Continue reading Retirement Choice ?

Bad News = Good News

06/08/2019

Yesterday’s employment report was considered bad news, as only 75 thousand jobs were created in May, while 180 thousand had been expected.  Bad News!  So, why did the Dow rise 263 points?  Because that increases the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates.  Clearly, the market believes that short-term interest rates – the only … Continue reading Bad News = Good News

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