The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

Unforgivable ?


If you want to see a grown man cry, just watch my eyes when they play “taps” at a military funeral. As an existentialist, I don’t grieve for the veteran, as death is only one side a coin . . . one side with pain and one without.  Of course, as a human, I do … Continue reading Unforgivable ?

Right Hand/Left Hand


If I had to say something nice about the current economic collapse, I would say — at least, it is NOT also a financial collapse.  Our banking system has remained relatively strong, thank goodness.  If not, this “flash-depression” would easily turn into another Great Depression.  Keeping our financial system solid is desperately important.  After the … Continue reading Right Hand/Left Hand

Guessing Expectations


On Wall Street, the favorite game is guessing what outcome is already “priced-into-the-market.”  It is a game of guessing expectations.  For example, I think the stock market currently expects Trump to lose the Presidency, while Republicans hold onto the Senate.  Remember, Wall Street always over-reacts to surprises! If the Senate remains Republican, the Trump tax … Continue reading Guessing Expectations

Your Favorite Foot?


One of my favorite thought leaders is the brilliant but affable Jeremy Siegel of Wharton.  In his latest commentary, he thinks the stock market will remain relatively range-bound for the next 3-4 months before a breakout upwards.  The continued flow of cash from the Fed is the major support of the economy.  For example, M2, … Continue reading Your Favorite Foot?

A Stain on our Soul


One Sunday morning many years ago, I sat in a pew, listening to a minister who preached that God loves all people, even bad people — because every person has some good in them.  Unfortunately, he went on to say God even loved Hitler.  Everybody sitting in the pews immediately straightened their back and listened.  … Continue reading A Stain on our Soul

Damn Shame


There’s more to investing that mere numbers.  There’s more to accounting than mere debits and credits.  There’s more to financial planning than canned software programs.  Clients are human.  They need fewer numbers and more human advice, even young millennials . Alexander Kearns was a 20-year-old resident in Illinois.  Like so many, he signed up with … Continue reading Damn Shame

In A Flash


Do you remember the year of 2010?  That was the year of the “Flash Crash”.  It happened on May 6th, when the stock market suddenly fell almost a thousand points, losing a trillion dollars, before recovering 36 minutes later.  It was a market event . . . of temporary significance. Do you remember the year … Continue reading In A Flash



Without numbers, an opinion is nothing more than a gut-feeling. So, here’s my gut feeling: 1.  The stock market hit a bottom in March. 2.  A modest rebound was expected. 3.  Instead, the market rebounded very, very strongly. 4.  Market watchers could not explain the strength of the rebound. 5.  However, an increase in retail … Continue reading Gut-speak



Imagine looking out your front window.  On the sidewalk across the street, a man, an auditor-looking man in a trench coat sits in a lawn chair with a clipboard on his lap.  When your lights come on each morning, he makes a note on his clipboard.  When you get the newspaper off the front porch, … Continue reading Creepy

“miscalculation error”


Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment report.  It was much better than expected, showing unemployment dropped 1.4% instead of increasing 4-5%.  I wrote “Something Smells” about this.  After all, how could 30 million workers be receiving unemployment benefits, when the BLS said  only 20 million workers were unemployed? Later … Continue reading “miscalculation error”



Incivility in politics runs in cycles.  Believe it or not, this is not the worst partisanship in our history, although I do suspect we are near the low point in this cycle.  Tracing this cycle back to its beginning, you might find Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich instructing freshman congressmen to avoid fraternization with … Continue reading Slant-Seeking

The Burden of Good Intentions


Lars von Trier is the greatest film director you’ve probably never heard of.  Maybe that’s because he is Danish, or maybe because he doesn’t make movies for the mainstream.  Those movies are existential to the core, with a stream of surrealism meandering between the comedic and the absurd.  A-list actors beg for the experience of … Continue reading The Burden of Good Intentions

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