The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

An Unintended Consequence

In 2020, about 350 thousand Americans were killed by Covid.  In 2021, another 500 thousand Americans were killed. In 2020, Wall Street boomed, with the S&P up about 16 percent.  In 2021, the S&P boomed again, up about 26 percent. So, how can the stock market continue to rise so much when so many Americans are being killed? Money supply (M2) increased about $3.8 trillion…

Lesson for 2022

This year, I lost six friends – five of whom were also clients.  Each leaves a hole in my life, and I miss them already.  Depressed by the crushing grind  of the pandemic, I miss them even more. A few months ago, we went to the SPCA and adopted a blind rescue cat, who was only days away from being euthanized.  Despite his inability to…

Alternatives to Inflation

Every economist knows you can curb inflation most easily by raising interest rates, but there are some hidden costs.  Of course, nothing is ever simple. To raise interest costs, go to www.usdebtclock.org , and you’ll see our national debt is over $29 trillion and speeding toward $30 trillion.  Then, pick up your iPhone and ask Siri what is 1% of $30 trillion, and she’ll tell…

Those Silly Foreigners

Everybody knows that immigrants are bad.  They take our jobs.  They suck up welfare dollars and healthcare dollars and education dollars.  Most of all, they violate our laws, believing that their families are more important to them than our laws — how silly! So, what’s wrong with the U.K., Canada, Japan and Australia?  According to The Wall Street Journal, they’re easing immigration rules!  They actually…

Two Smart Guys

Two of my favorite investment strategists are Jeremy Siegel of Wharton and Jeff Gundlach of Doubletree.  One is an affable professor, and the other is an aggressive CEO.  They’re both brilliant. Neither thinks the stock market is facing any imminent collapse.  Dr. Siegel thinks it is riding the huge increase in money supply.  Gundlach thinks it is riding the huge increase in debt. Both are…

Presidential Humans?

The silly little truth that makes economists snicker is this:  Presidents get too much credit when the economy is strong and too much blame when the economy is weak. The American economy is too big to change directions quickly and too tied into the world economy to change greatly.  Of course, the stock market is somewhat different but not entirely different, but it basically reflects…

Secret Prejudice

As a rambunctious six-year-boy, I cracked off half of a front tooth, earning the nickname of “snaggle-tooth”.  As my mother told me, if you don’t mind, then it doesn’t matter, and I honestly didn’t mind. For many decades, my wife encouraged me to have cosmetic dentistry, including expensive veneers, which I ignored.  However, when she said it was important enough to her that she wanted…

Death of a Datapoint ?

There is one predictable pattern for both Republican Administrations and Democratic Administrations.  If they don’t like the monthly jobs reports, they shoot the messenger, who is the Bureau of Labor Standards (BLS), which produces the report.  (They are often accused of political motives, but I have attended enough BLS classes to know that even Microsoft doesn’t have more geeks and nerds that the BLS.)  Normally,…