Sometimes, a good economic datapoint has an unpleasant surprise in the details. While most people have been focused on the inflation rate, the stock market is largely focused on earnings and GDP growth.  At first blush, the full year GDP growth for 2021 was 5.7%, which is terrific, especially the fourth quarter when growth was … Continue reading Trojan Data

Every profession has old adages of advice.  For example, lawyers are fond of saying “a lawyer who defends himself has a fool for a client.”  Of course, Wall Street also has its share of adages, such as “ride your winners and sell your losers.”  Probably, the oldest was first heard during the Napoleonic Wars, which … Continue reading The Acrid Smell of Gunpowder

I support the House Select Committee on the January 6th, because I want to understand how it happened and how recurrences can be prevented.  One outcome is that the Committee determines former President Trump was responsible and refers the matter to the Justice Department, who brings him to trial, where he is convicted and affirmed … Continue reading Starved for Oxygen

My latest column for Inside Business lives here: https://www.pilotonline.com/inside-business/vp-ib-expert-flinchum-0117-20220114-pxhw3vwrp5gsbgcksy3spnlayi-story.html

Many years ago, I was fortunate to work with an older lady, who fasted every Friday – no breakfast, no lunch, and no dinner.  Most of us assumed she did this as part of a weight management program, but one day she added that “self-control is just another muscle that gets weak without exercise.” Ten … Continue reading Just Another Muscle

Like most people, when I watched last year’s riot/demonstration/insurrection on January 6th, I was shocked and heartbroken.  However, as I watched news coverage of the first anniversary, I recalled the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968, when massive riots broke out in Washington.  I was stationed at Fort Bragg, where we were quickly put … Continue reading 1968 and 2021

Trying to read somebody’s mind, especially their intentions, is a fool’s errand . . . but here goes anyway! Jerry Powell is head of the Federal Reserve System, which is the only agency with the duty to control inflation.  He knows his predecessors have proved that raising interest rates will lower the inflation rate and … Continue reading Mind Game ?

Like the pandemic, inflation seems to have appeared suddenly.  First, there was the sudden increase in government spending last year to combat the virus.  Second, there was a similar increase in the money supply by the Fed for the same reason.  Both examples energized “demand-pull” inflation. In addition, supply chain problems increased costs.  Plus, the … Continue reading Push – Pull