For many years, the traditional but unofficial definition of a recession has been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Since the first read on GDP in the first quarter was a negative 1.4%, does that mean a negative number in the second quarter will show us in a recession? No! The fourth quarter of … Continue reading Strong Dollar = Weak Report
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
In the classical world of economics, Earth is little more than a glorified auction house. If more people want something, they will bid up the price to get what they want. However, when supply increases more than demand, buyers will demand lower prices. Fewer buyers = less demand = lower prices. After Putin invaded Ukraine, … Continue reading Short-lived Success ?
When I agree with a Republican position, I often get complaints from Democratic readers. When I agree with a Democratic position, I often get complaints from Republican readers. The most vociferous complaint was a few years ago, when I wrote that social media was a “clear & present danger” to our democracy. He even said … Continue reading Darts Hurt ?
Imagine a kid with a belly full of jelly beans plus a can of Mountain Dew, who is complaining about a bellyache but cries when given a tablespoon of Pepto-Bismol or other medicine. That’s how I see the current stock market. After riding high thorough a pandemic with a belly full of deficit spending and … Continue reading What Happened on Friday?
If it is true that the best protection from a bad guy with a gun . . . is a good guy with a gun, then shouldn’t we encourage or even require good guys to carry guns? When some pathetic sicko shows up and shoots ten people on a subway platform, why didn’t nine of … Continue reading Logically Absurd
My regular quarterly column for Inside Business can be found here: https://www.pilotonline.com/inside-business/vp-ib-expert-flinchum-0411-20220412-al76rpfrpjgw5f5hykpjpkplv4-story.html
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are misnamed. Those names give the impression that they are actual currencies and can therefore be valued the same way as traditional currencies, like the dollar, the euro, the yen, etc. Of course, the ever-present supply & demand for the cryptocurrencies is the final determinant of their value, but it doesn’t reflect … Continue reading What’s In A Name ?
Last December, I was talking with a young financial advisor wannabe and mentioned that my goal for the new year was to become more conversant about bitcoin and other digital assets. He joked . . . “Dude, you already have grey hair and can never learn that stuff.” First, I thought a dude was a … Continue reading Thanks . . . Dude!
There is much to learn from the embarrassment of Russia for their poor performance against the much weaker Ukraine. The Russians didn’t understand the “enthusiasm gap” between their conscripts or draftees, compared to the Ukrainians who were fighting for the country and their families. Enthusiasm matters! When discussing immigration, my Democratic friends dismiss my Republican … Continue reading To My Democratic Friends
Dr. Joseph Stiglitz is a Nobel Prize winning economist, who has opened discussion on a number of interesting subjects. One is how to measure the cost of war. There are direct costs, such as the price of bullets and other armaments, plus transportation costs of soldiers & equipment to the war zone, plus the salaries … Continue reading The Value of Indirect Costs
Economists are a cantankerous lot. Most don’t even like each other, but there is one thing they agree on: Presidents — ALL presidents — get too much credit when things are good and too much blame when things are bad. Like aircraft carriers, the economy is huge and changes directions slowly . . . very … Continue reading Complete Agreement
We are a fee-only advisor providing best interest fiduciary services to clients
in Chesapeake, Newport News, Norfolk, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, and the surrounding areas of Hampton Roads.