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A Change of Pace . . . or a Change?

11/30/2011

At 5AM, the futures market indicated the Dow would lose about 25 points.  By 6:30AM, it looks like it will gain 85 points at the open.  Why was there a turnaround of 110 points?  Some of the talking heads out of Europe said the crisis would be resolved, one way or the other, within the next ten days.  Coming on the heels of the announcement that the EFSF would be leveraged to become more bazooka-like (although they haven’t announced how much it would be leveraged), this new time “certainty” was refreshing.  I have no idea if it is true but doubt that European pontificators, I mean politicians, could agree on lunch within a mere ten days.

Another hopeful sign is that the summit on December 9th (ten days from now) will develop rules of the new Stability Pact.  Make no mistake — members of this pact will surrender a huge degree of sovereignty, i.e., fiscal policy.  When EU nations surrendered their monetary policy with the Maastricht Treaty signing almost 19 years ago, it was joked it would take a crisis before they surrendered fiscal policy.  They didn’t say it would take such a big crisis!

In addition, China just annouced they would cut their bank reserve requirements for the first time in three years.  During this time, they have been more concerned with inflation and have been restraining growth.  Today’s announcement to pump up growth is a very bullish sign.

In the U.S., we will be getting job data over the next three days.  If today’s data at 8:15AM is better than expectations, we will have received bullish data from three continents, and it should be a very strongly bullish day in the market.

Enjoy all the good news today . . . but keep watching!

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