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A Perma-Bull To The End


A perma-bear is someone who always thinks the glass is half-empty and that the stock market is going down.  A perma-bull is someone who always thinks the glass is half-full and that the stock market is going up.  My favorite professor from Wharton, Dr. Jeremy Siegel, is a perma-bull.  (However, his 2013 forecast was THE most accurate forecast last year, not second or third, but THE most accurate.)

His latest weekly commentary ends with an amusing line.  He notes the stock market has been largely range-bound but drifting slowly, very slowly upwards, despite the fact there has been “very little economic news.”  The Fed has not provided any definitive deadlines to eliminate quantitative easing.  Retail sales have been dull, even disappointing.  Even the geo-political news like the Ukraine has been sanguine.  It’s boring!

He discusses the strange performance of the VIX or “fear index.”  It falls when Wall Street feels optimism and rises when it feels pessimism.  It is now very low, suggesting the market has become complacent, “suggesting that the market is near its peak.”  He shows a surprising bit of bearishness in that statement.  He could just as easily say the low VIX is predictive of another upward move.

Then, he returns to character by concluding “There are just no surprising developments that are moving the market.  History has suggested that this does not last long, but one should remember that [cue the perma-bull now] any upside surprise is as likely as a downward one.”

I love this guy!

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