The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

A Tiger Changes His Stripes….?


Dr. Nouriel Roubini is widely known as “Dr. Doom” after being the lonely voice predicting the Great Recession. Today, he actually found reason to be optimistic, i.e., the return to growth in global trade.

In 2008, global trade grew 3%. In 2009, it actually contracted by 13%, the first contraction in 27 years. Today, he predicted global trade will actually increase 4.5% to 5% this year. This would be good news, indeed! Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping rates and is often used as a de facto indicator of globalization.

We’re unlikely to see the euphoria of early 2007, but we can hope . . . especially if “Dr. Doom” is right

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