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Another Giant Sucking Sound

06/22/2013

Wall Street’s infamous Vampire Squid, AKA Goldman Sachs, has issued their latest quarterly assessment.  I take their thoughts seriously, even though I don’t trust anything they say.  Here are some of their current thoughts:

1.  “Global markets have started to worry that the US economy is moving a bit too nicely over the hump of fiscal contraction.”  Paging Congress — are you listening?  Never mind . . .

2.  “We disagree with the emerging ‘good news is bad news’ view.”  Forgive me, but I agree with the Vampire Squid on this.

3.  They expect the Fed to begin tapering in December, which is reasonable, since Bernanke wants to start the process before his term ends in January.

4.  GDP growth will slow this year to 1.9% but will jump strongly to 2.9% next year.

5.  Unemployment will drop from its current 7.6% to 6.6% at the end of 2014.

6.  Gold will rise to $1,450 by year-end.

7.  The dollar will strengthen compared to the Yen but weaken compared to the Euro.

8.  Interest rates have finished rising for this year but will add another half-point next year.  They also presented an interesting analysis of the impact of rising interest rates on stock prices.  As long as GDP growth remains strong, stocks will continue to rise despite a rise in interest rates.  (Generally speaking, interest rates can rise because borrowing has increased or interest rates can be raised to tamp down inflation.)  In this environment, dividend-paying stocks out-perform and small-cap stocks out-perform.

Seriously, Goldman Sachs enjoys an excellent, respectable research department, which is independent of the rest of the company . . . thank goodness!

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