The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

August All Twelve Months

08/10/2016

The August projections from the august and imperial Goldman Sachs (GS) are as follows:

1.  GDP growth remains stable in the U.S., rising from 1.9% this year to only 2.0% by 2018.  (I’m guessing they expect a Clinton victory and a continuation of current economic policies.)

2.  In Japan, it rises from 0.4% this year to 1.1% in two years.  (This nice increase is driven by debt.)

3.  European GDP growth will bump along from 1.3% this year, 1.2% next year, and 1.6% in 2018.

4.  Post-Brexit Britain will drop from 2.3% last year to only 0.2% next year but up to 1.3% in 2018.  (This is what happens when you shoot yourself in the foot.)

5.  China’s growth continues to drop from 6.9% last year, 6.4% next year and 6.1% in 2018.  (This reflects the Law of Large Numbers.)

6.  Significantly, advanced economies will grow at a 1.7% level, while the world will grow 3.1% this year and 3.8% in 2018.  (This is an important shift!)

7.  The S&P 500 will decrease a minor 1.2% over the next twelve months, while European stocks will drop 1.6% and Japan’s will drop 2.1%.  (A nice improvement in Japan’s GDP growth rate, but their stock market will have a slight decline.)

8.  Interest rates will increase 0.73% in the U.S., 0.53% in Europe, and 0.35% in Japan over the next twelve months.  (I don’t believe this, especially for the U.S.)

9.  The euro will drop 8.9% against the dollar over the next twelve months, compared to the pound dropping another 4.5% but the Yen appreciating a 17.6%.  (Start planning your next European vacation.)

10.  Oil will increase 24.8% to $57/bbl over the next twelve months, while gold will lose 5.4% and copper will lose 19.3%  (The increase in the oil price makes sense, but I don’t understand how copper could drop so much unless there is a recession, which they are not predicting.)

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