The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
While there is always an economic recession in front of us, a recession is not necessary for the stock market to sustain a 10% correction or even a 20% bear market. Likewise, a stock market slump does not reliably predict a recession. The current stock market slump started with the January Jobs Report, which indicated … Continue reading Almost Showtime ??
People disagree on which TV commercial by Apple is the best one. Most think it was the iconic “1984” commercial. My vote goes to the “Lemmings” commercial, which was aimed at IBM users. You can see it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-SJQdREDKM Attending a local church service, where it is customary for the congregation to stand up occasionally, … Continue reading Two Things To Remember
As I look out my window, I see the beautiful Chesapeake Bay, where it enters the Atlantic Ocean. Even though it normally looks placid and peaceful, I know there are many currents I cannot see. Millions of gallons of water flow by every day, slipping beneath the surface of the Atlantic Ocean as the water … Continue reading Economic Oceanography
A recent study found that people experienced greater happiness as their income rose, which is not surprising. But, it also found that rate of growth in happiness slows down when income reaches about $75,000 annually. More money increases happiness less and less. At that point, spending has a greater impact on happiness than income. But, … Continue reading Buying Happiness
In 1919, Congress passed the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, beginning the Era of Prohibition. None of the earlier 17 amendments were ever as unpopular with the American people as that one. Fourteen years later, that amendment was repealed. Yes, an amendment can be repealed. Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens has now opined … Continue reading Loved To Death
Many novice investors think investing is easy. All you have to do is stay invested in stocks when the market is rising, but move to cash when the market is falling. Simple, right? The stock market is predictable, right? Numerous studies have found that “market timing” should be left to the hedge fund techies, not … Continue reading Reverse Income Averaging
Most people fear trade wars, because they know a trade war can easily become a real-killing-people kind of war. Most economists fear trade wars, because it destroys the principle of comparative advantage, reducing the standard of living on all sides. Fortunately, on March 1st of this year, the President assured us that “trade wars are … Continue reading Good Wars ?
For years, I have worried about the impact of too much news-watching. It can drain a person emotionally and suck them into a “group-think.” It can also make a person very boring. So, I have practiced a “news-celibacy” day — voluntarily not watching any news for 24 hours. In my case, it was Saturday. Then, … Continue reading Backsliding
Imagine . . . a loved one has gone missing, when you hear a rumor they may still be alive. Imagine that surge of hope and gratitude that floods your heart. I’m feeling that way! There is a rumor that Americans are suddenly indignant about their loss of privacy. Is that too good to be … Continue reading Selling My Vote ?
Historically, stockbrokers have been mere salesmen, pushing high commission or hidden commission products onto their unsuspecting clients. Out of that swamp, Registered Investment Advisors emerged. They embraced the Fiduciary Standard, which requires no hidden fees and full disclosure of any conflicts of interest. Stockbrokers were held to a mere “suitability standard” which is virtually no … Continue reading Stockbrokers Win, Americans Lose
It is hard to believe it has been ten years since the stock market began crashing into the worst recession since the Great Depression. The key event was the collapse of Bear Stearns, a well-respected investment house. In the aftermath, amidst cries of “Never Again,” a well-intentioned Congress produced the Dodd-Frank legislation. Like any complex … Continue reading Ten Year Facelift ?
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