The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Downward and Onward?

10/28/2018

Most investors were sorry to see the Dow drop almost 300 points last Friday.  However, I was sorry it didn’t drop 1,000 points.  Stock market corrections don’t hit bottom until there is some degree of panic, which flushes stock out of “weak hands.”

I know this slump is not a financial crisis, as I watch that data closely.  I doubt it is not the beginning of a recession, as the economic data is too good.  Of course, it could turn into a recession but not suddenly and certainly not this month.

I can carry a hundred pound package to the front door without problem.  However, if I try to carry it across town, my body would start breaking down.  Like hundred pound packages, all these geopolitical problems pounding on the stock market right now will not impact the underlying economy, at least in the near future.  Someday, of course.  This month, nope!

That leaves one option — a normal 10% correction.  (It’s not even a Bear Market until it is down 20%.)  This is a routine correction!  Now, give me a good, healthy 1,000 point loss, so we can get back to normal growth.

Lastly, did I mention that we are still in October, when strange things happen?

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