Sitting on my balcony here on the beach, the weather is delightful – warm, gentle breezes with low humidity. Yet, I am looking at white sea gulls but thinking about Black Swans. You know, Black Swan events are those events that happen suddenly, with no warning but seem utterly predictable in hindsight. Far offshore right now, there is Hurricane Florence, hurtling toward my little piece of condo heaven. With the weather so nice, how could a category four hurricane ruin all this serenity? Ten years ago, we said the same before the Lehman failure, that infamous Black Swan event that ushered in the Global Financial Crisis.
The history lesson we forget is the famous “Minsky’s Moment,” named after the American economist, Hyman Minsky, who theorized that debt is a balloon, which expands and stretches until it bursts suddenly. That is the category ten hurricane that I fear. When was the last time you went to www.usdebtclock.org ? No, when???
I can escape this category four hurricane by jumping into my fancy car and driving away, but how do I escape the Black Swan or, even worse, another Minsky’s Moment?