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Giving the Devil His/Her Due

10/23/2013

The latest forecasts from investment banking giant Goldman Sachs predict the following:

1.  GDP growth this year will average only 1.6%, reflecting damage of the government shutdown, but will jump to 2.9% for next year and unemployment will be “only” 6.6% by the end of 2014.
2.  Inflation remains tame at 1.8% at the core level through next year.
3.  Interest rates will move up sharply from about 2.5% for 10-year Treasuries now to 3.25% next year.
4.  The S&P 500 will end this year about where we are now (1,750) but end next year at 1,900.
5.  Oil will continue to fall about 10% through next year.
6.  Gold and cooper will both fall.  Gold is expected to drop from about $1,325/oz to only $1,030, while cooper will drop from $6,600/ton to $6,200.
7.  The dollar will appreciate against the Yen but depreciate slightly against the Euro.
8.  Tapering of quantitative easing will not begin before March.

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