The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

ISM Report Is Telling

11/10/2008

The S&P fell 3.9% last week. One of the primary reasons was the latest ISM Report by the Institute of Supply Management. A score of 50 indicates no growth. A score of 40 indicates a serious recession. This week, it was 38.9, which is the lowest since September 1982. Look at this graph.

The rapid fall is certainly stunning! But, notice the pattern of quick reversals as well. As scary as things are, keep in mind this too will pass! I’ve written that the bottom of the economic cycle could be Q2 of next year but now suspect it will be Q3. We’ve been through this 11 times since World War II. This one is longer and deeper, but we’ll get through this one too!

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