This is the worst month for the stock market since January of 2016. But, they are very different corrections. I was nervous during the first one but am just annoyed at the current one.
Glencore is a huge London-based commodities trader, and they were struggling two and a half years ago. Because they were the fifth largest user of derivatives in the world, I recognized they posed a big counter-party risk. Fortunately, they quickly sold off a number of assets in time to shore-up their balance sheet. In other words, there was a systemic risk then, that I don’t see today.
My intellectual hero at Wharton is Dr. Jeremy Siegel, who predicts “muted and volatile equity returns through year-end.” I am slightly more optimistic than him, as the market tends to rise after the mid-term election, because uncertainty goes down. Virtually nobody foresees a market crash.
However, I do worry that the timing of the Mueller report release will hit the market when it is already nervous.