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Loving Uncertainty


A new survey released this week by Gallup shows that a robust 85% of Americans are happy or relatively happy with their lives in this country.  At the same time, only 17% are happy with the “direction” of our country.

Last Friday, the monthly “jobs report” showed job growth remained surprisingly strong, with 678 thousand new jobs created last month.  Only 440 thousand new jobs were expected.  Also, we learned of 92 thousand more new jobs were created over the previous two months than previously reported.  The unemployment rate dropped to a mere 3.8%.  Our labor market is indeed strong!  Overall, we’re stronger than expected after the pandemic!  Analysts expect earnings per share to increase a healthy 8% this year.  Even inflation showed some faint weakening with zero increase in average hourly earnings last month.  Plus, the expected increase of interest rates this month has dropped 50%.

Why is the stock market getting jerked around by news from Ukraine?  Increased uncertainty!  Will it be a long war or a short war?  Will there be high casualties or low casualties?  Will Putin push the red button or not?

So, if the U.S. economy is good and stocks are on-sale, why not buy some more stocks before peace comes to Ukraine?  Take advantage of increased uncertainty?

Maybe, Americans are not optimistic enough?  Maybe, Americans suffer from the mass media, as Republicans believe.  Maybe, Americans suffer from the widening differences in both income and wealth, as Democrats believe.  Maybe, it is the human suffering in Ukraine or on our southern border or a dozen other places, including Afghanistan.  Maybe, it is a natural result from the grinding inconvenience of the pandemic or the mental image of the 950 thousand corpses of those who died from Covid.

Sounds like a good time to buy more stocks to me!

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