The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

More Good Datapoints

10/01/2020

Consumer Confidence is a key indicator of the economy, especially future retail sales.  In February, it was 132.6 – a record high.  Then, the pandemic hit and Consumer Confidence dropped to 85.7 in April.  Monday, we learned it has risen nicely to 101.8.  This was better than expected.

We have spoken before about the two-speed economy, composed of those who floated above the pandemic-recession – the floaters – and those who suffered – the sinkers.  The release showed Consumer Confidence for those making over $100 thousand annually reached 121, while it was only 71 for those making less than $15 thousand annually.  That’s a big difference!

Reflecting that improved Consumer Confidence, the National Association of Realtors released a report today showing pending home sales were up 8.3% over last month and 26.1% over the same month last year.

The most closely watched economic report each month is the “Jobs Report” by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will be released this Friday.  Pay attention!

Now, here is the obvious question:  After Congress flushed $3 trillion through the economy, shouldn’t the economy look pretty good?  For how long?

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