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My Bold Prediction

10/12/2012

Do you have some time?  I’d like to tell you the many complaints I have with the Simpson-Bowles Plan to fix America’s fiscal problems.  In fact, you should put your feet up, as this may take all day . . . OK, never mind!  If you’ve been reading this blog very long, you already know how I think about the rapidly-rising cost of entitlements, and I won’t need to explain the reasons I don’t like the plan.

Nonetheless, I pray Congress adopts it immediately!

You’ll recall the Republicans abandoned the Simpson-Bowles Plan, because Grover Norquist insisted it is a violation of the oath to make zero compromises on tax increases.  Democrats abandoned it, because there were strict limitations on the growth rate in spending for Medicare and Social Security.

But, the biggest problem with the Simpson-Bowles Plan is that it is NOT perfect.  Still, here is my bold prediction:  If the President, Senate Majority Leader, Speaker of the House, and House Majority Leader walk out on a stage and all announce their support of the Simpson-Bowles Plan . . . the Dow Jones Industrial Average will soar a thousand points – IMMEDIATELY!

Throwing off this heavy, wet blanket will put the U.S. budget on a sustainable fiscal plan over time.  There will be plenty of time to make it “perfect” later.  But, right now, America needs certainty more than it needs perfection.

More certainty will help this economy far more than any stimulus plan, in both the short-run and the long-run.   Greater certainty will come,of course, when the tax code is revamped, but all we need now is the certainty that our long-run fiscal health is assured.  That is all the stimulus we need.

If the Republicans want to help, they will remember growth will help everybody in the long-run, even if some (like myself) pay more taxes in the short-run.  My income will go up more than my taxes will go up.  If the Democrats want to help, they will remember that the recession created by going over the Fiscal Cliff will hurt the poor far more than the rich.  If the Democrats want to help the poor, they will support the Simpson-Bowles Plan, and I pray they do it immediately.

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