The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Subscribe to the Flinchum File
View Archives

. . . On With The Show

05/19/2017

It was March 21st that I predicted the President would be impeached.  My objective then was to study how impeachment might impact my clients’ portfolios.  After studying the impeachments of Andrew Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton, I concluded there is no predictable pattern.  (Still, as the market goes down when uncertainty goes up, I felt it would be appropriate to remove some risk by raising cash.)

At the time, I expected Republicans to lose the House but retain the Senate in next year’s midterm elections.  In that case, the President would be impeached by the House but not convicted in the Senate and therefore not removed from office.  (In Clinton’s case, the market started rising as soon as the Senate trial began, as it was obvious he would not be convicted.)

Now, I suspect there is a greater likelihood the President will resign before he can be impeached.  His former ghostwriter says the President doesn’t understand right or wrong, only winning or losing – that’s a huge difference.  When he realizes he cannot win, he will just declare victory and resign.  Jeremy Siegel, the legendary professor at Wharton, predicted the Dow would suddenly jump a thousand points when that happens.

Right now, the Republican goals of tax reform and infrastructure stimulus are seeping out of Wall Street dreams.  A President Pence would reduce the drama and restore the GOP dreams.  It might cause the bear market I expect to occur sooner but to be less severe.

If so . . . on with the show, please!

We are a fee-only advisor providing best interest fiduciary services to clients
in Chesapeake, Newport News, Norfolk, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, and the surrounding areas of Hampton Roads.

CONTACT BAY CAPITAL ADVISORSWe Will Respond Promptly

Contact Us Bottom