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Only Five ?

03/14/2017

Bobby Doll is the Chief Equity Analyst for giant Nuveen Asset Management and has long been one of my favorite thought-leaders.  An affable, humble man with an ability to write succinctly, he remains confident in both the economy and the stock market.  However, his most recent commentary lists five risks we should pay attention to, and they are quoted as follows:

1.  U.S. Politics: Despite growing signs of disunity between President Trump and the GOP Congress, investors still appear optimistic about prospects for pro-growth economic policies. However, we expect investors may lose patience if specifics about issues such as tax policy and health care reform are not forthcoming.

2.  European Politics: Perceived risks in Europe have faded as Marine Le Pen’s standing in the French polls has dropped. But the rise of such nationalist candidates may pose a risk to economic growth and equity markets.

3.  Earnings: Corporate earnings have improved over the past couple of quarters, but
forward-looking expectations may be too high. Consensus expectations are for a double-digit advance in earnings growth for 2017.4 That level will be difficult to achieve, especially since profit margins remain under pressure.

4.  Economic Growth: We have seen an almost uninterrupted string of positive growth surprises in the U.S. economy over the past several months. We don’t expect growth to slow, but more bumps are likely in the coming months.

5.  The Fed: Investors have largely shrugged off prospects for higher rates, but rising rates could eventually dampen equity market momentum. Additionally, we see a great deal of uncertainty surrounding who Donald Trump will nominate to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Now, about all those other things you were worrying about . . . STOP IT!

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